This is personally one of my favorite times of the MLB season as a fan. Teams are deciding whether to buy or sell at the impending trade deadline based on their performance this week, and this is really when the intensity of the season begins to pick up. All 30 MLB teams are in action today, leaving plenty of betting opportunities. My favorite angle will be in the Padres vs Pirates game. Let’s dive in.
Blake Snell (SDP) over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)
Blake Snell has stayed under his strikeout total in 2 straight starts, but his underlying metrics have remained impressive while his workload has spiked back up again. Walks have been his downfall this month, issuing a horrible 17 free passes across 21 innings pitched. Despite this glaring issue, the southpaw has still generated a 1.38 K/IP in that span, even higher than his season-long 1.32 mark. The veteran pitcher has amassed a swinging strike rate of at least 15.2% in each of his last 9 starts. That 15.2% mark is his season average and a 93rd percentile number. Snell does all of this despite generating a poor rate of first pitch strikes, seemingly never getting ahead in counts. With a 7.5 line that can become problematic quickly, but this matchup is one I am more than willing to attack at this line.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been reeling at the plate against left-handed pitching lately. Southpaws have been gashing them with a 26.3% K% in 552 PA since June 1. Since June 22, across a sample of 343 PA, Pittsburgh has struck out 30.9% of the time while posting a measly 7.0% BB% and wRC+ of 74. They like to stack right-handed batters against southpaws regardless of the opponent’s splits, and this was seen by their lineup against Reid Detmers just this Saturday with 9 righties in the order. Detmers recorded 9 strikeouts in that game. Even Sunday Tyler Anderson recorded a 17.5% swinging strike rate against the Pirates, up from his season average of 12.3%.'Other strong recent outings from lefties include Braxton Garrett with 13, Jesus Luzardo 9, Julio Urias 8, Logan Allen 8, and our guy Blake Snell had 10 against the Pirates in their first matchup of the season last month. We can expect more of the same tonight and Snell has a 3.3% higher K% against right-handed bats sinc e the start of last season.