Best MLB prop bets for today, 5/23: Rich is over the hill

The Pickswise family is on a 9-2 run with our prop articles! With a full 15-game slate and plenty of intriguing games to choose from, bettors are sure to find value in today’s slate. The Texas Rangers have been very good for us lately, and with another opportune matchup they are the focus of my best bet today. Let’s dive in!

Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-105)

The Texas Rangers were held scoreless through the first 5 innings of last night’s game. That is a rare occurrence for the team leading MLB in runs per game through 5 innings this season. They were facing a young right-hander in Luis Ortiz who was very solid in his 7.2 IP. This evening they will look to bounce back in their preferred split against left-hander Rich Hill. Hill pitched very well in his last outing, allowing only 1 hit in 6 scoreless innings against Detroit. That being said, there are clear signs of regression in his game, and the Rangers are one of the tougher matchups for left-handed pitching in all of baseball. Hill currently sports a 3.80 ERA but his 4.62 FIP and 5.87 xERA are far less inspiring. The southpaw falls behind in counts often with a 57.2% first pitch strike rate. At 43-years-old, Hill relies heavily on commanding the zone, but he has been missing spots this season. A 12.6%-barrel rate, .520 xSLG, and 30.1%-line drive rate are all worrisome marks. His ground ball rate is the lowest since his 2009 season which lowers his chances of getting easy outs and out of jams.

This season Texas ranks 3rd in wOBA, 4th in BB%, and have a 133 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. Of the last 11 left-handed starting pitchers to face Texas, all 11 have allowed 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings. That includes Jared Schuster and Kyle Freeland last week, both of whom we bet against. Freeland was absolutely blitzed out of the gates with the Rangers scoring 8 runs off him in his 2 innings of work. Texas finished that game with 11 runs, their 11th time scoring double-digit runs this season. Most of their production this season has been without star shortstop Corey Seager, but his return has been an instant boost to the lineup. He has recorded at least 1 RBI in all 5 games since his return with 9 total in his 19 AB and a 1.175 OPS. League average wOBA for batters this season is .316. The lowest wOBA against LHP of any Ranger bat in today’s projected lineup is Nathaniel Lowe and his .310 wOBA. All other 8 projected bats are above league average while Lowe hi mself is certainly still a threat. I love the combination of patience and power that Texas possesses, and I am more than willing to back them again this evening.

  
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