We have only 7 MLB games on this Thursday slate, but there are some intriguing matchups still on the board. From afternoon baseball in Boston, to Kodai Senga’s first start against the Giants, there should be no shortage of entertainment. My favorite betting angle comes in the Angels at Yankees game, however, so let’s dive in!
Angels / Yankees first 5 innings total under 4.5 runs (-120)
With Nestor Cortes and Patrick Sandoval facing off this afternoon, I am compelled to invest in a pitcher’s duel. Both southpaws have had solid starts to their 2023 campaigns, and both are guys I was high on coming into this season. Let’s start with Cortes. The 28-year-old was dominant at home last season. He held opponents to a .161 batting average while posting a 1.95 ERA in 15 home starts. Cortes has held the Phillies and Twins to 3 combined earned runs in his home starts so far this season. He was also exceptional in the day, posting a 1.82 ERA in 12 daytime starts last year. Los Angeles has impressive numbers against left-handed pitching so far this season. That being said, nearly all that production came against Ken Waldichuk, Patrick Corbin, and Yusei Kikuchi. Those 3 names are all prime fade candidates and Nestor will be by far the best left-hander they have faced. His earned run prop was juiced overnight when given out on one available book but sits at 2.5. Tha t is a mark he has stayed under in 26 of his last 34 starts.
Sandoval is an underrated left-hander in his own right. He pitched for team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic this spring and looked fantastic. He has a devastating slider that induces whiffs at a 31.7% clip and holds opponents to a .262 xSLG. His 4-seamer is allowing an xSLG of only .180 as well. His changeup has been hit hard but the Yankees are just 27th in run value/100 against that offering. They also struggle mightily against the slider, ranking 24th in run value/100. Sandoval has a career ground ball rate that is 5% higher than league average. His miniscule flyball rate will benefit him when playing in Yankee Stadium. In his last 8 starts on the road spanning 45.2 IP Sandoval has allowed 6 combined earned runs. When his location is on point, he is very hard to beat. The Yankees have been ice cold against left-handed pitching so far this season. Despite facing Matt Strahm, Cole Irvin, and Jose Suarez, New York ranks 25th in OPS with a wRC+ of 77 against southpaws. Ballpar kPal also projects Yankee Stadium for the 2nd sharpest decrease in overall run scoring on today’s slate when factoring in weather.