Best MLB prop bet for today 7/28: Bailey Ober strikes out 6 or more

Sunday’s slate of baseball features several important matchups as we inch closer to playoff baseball. From a betting perspective there is a pitching prop that stands out to me among the rest, let’s dive in!

Bailey Ober (MIN) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-110)

Bailey Ober is in the midst of a very strong season for the Minnesota Twins. The physically imposing 6’9″ pitcher has a 4.04 ERA through his first 107 innings on the year, but his underlying metrics suggest he has been far better. With an xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all well below his ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP that ranks 16th among qualified pitchers, Ober’s ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. The right-hander has been extremely effective in the strikeout department this season, earning a 9.25 K/9 with 6 or more strikeouts in 10 of his 19 starts. This includes 5 of his last 6 starts, 4 of which ended with 8 or more punch outs. Ober mainly utilizes a 4-pitch mix with each offering earning at least 12.9% usage. His 4-seamer and changeup lead the way in terms of generating a 3rd strike, but each offering is used with 2 strikes and a threat against either handedness. Overall, Ober has done well by ranking 71st percentile in whiff rate this season. His chase rate ranks 87th percentile and his swinging strike rate sits in the 83rd percentile. Ober consistently jumps ahead in counts thanks to his 68.9% first-pitch strike rate, and his 77.7% in-zone contact rate allowed ranks 4.3% better than league average.

With Ober’s ability to win both inside and outside of the strike zone, that makes him interesting in a matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Ober has faced Detroit twice already this season, registering 6 and 8 strikeouts while allowing just 2 combined earned runs across 12 innings of work. Active Tiger hitters have 74 combined PA against Ober all time with 23 strikeouts to only 1 walk. Detroit just struck out 8 times to Joe Ryan and 7 times to Pablo Lopez to begin this series, and 9 of the last 11 right-handed pitchers have cleared this mark against them when pitching at last 6 innings. Ober’s outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 with significant juice towards the over for this game, as that is a mark he has cleared in 6 straight starts. Detroit is also starting 5 right-handed batters which plays into Ober’s preferred split.