Wednesday’s slate of MLB games features 17 games thanks to doubleheaders between the Twins and White Sox, and Royals and Cardinals. With so many games set to take place there are several betting angles worth approaching. I am combining angles from 2 different games to generate a nice price for today’s featured play. Let’s dive in!
Framber Valdez (HOU) over 17.5 outs recorded + Patrick Corbin (WAS) over 5.5 hits allowed (+139)
Framber Valdez has had a down season when comparing his performance to prior seasons, but the southpaw sinker baller draws an enticing matchup today against the Miami Marlins. Miami has been baseball’s worst team against left-handed pitching this season, ranking dead last in wOBA with a 69 wRC+ in 1068 PA. When isolating their performance against left-handers in the last 30 days the Marlins sit 27th in wOBA with a 76 wRC+. Parts of their struggles include a non-existent walk rate thanks to overly aggressive approaches from several pieces of their lineup. Miami swings at the league’s highest rate across the last 30 days, including the highest swing rate on pitches located outside of the strike zone. They still make contact at an above average rate, and the result of their contact made on these poorly located offerings has resulted in a ton of ground balls and soft contact. Miami has the 3rd highest ground ball rate and 10th highest soft contact ate through the last 30 d ays against left-handers.
Valdez has still completed 6 or more innings of work in 9 of 15 starts including 8 of his last 11 this season. That includes 5 times in those last 11 outings where Framber pitched into the 7th frame. On the season the southpaw has registered the 2nd lowest number of pitches per plate appearance among all qualified pitchers. His 3.55 mark combined with his 98th percentile ground ball rate should allow him to pitch deeply into this game, especially considering the tendencies of the Marlins offensive unit. Even in his last start when Framber allowed 3 earned runs and 11 total base runners, he still completed 18 outs in just 90 pitches. Valdez has been extended past 100 pitches on numerous occasions and if pitching well we should expect a heavy workload.