Best MLB prop bet for today 4/4: Hayden Wesneski shines

With Kyle Hendricks beginning the season on the IL, the Chicago Cubs have turned to rookie prospect Hayden Wesneski to complete their 5-man rotation. The talented right-hander made his MLB debut last season against these same Cincinnati Reds, striking out 8 batters across 5 innings. He then made his final start of the season against them, striking out 6 more across 6 innings of work. Chicago acquired the young pitcher from the Yankees in a deadline deal that sent Scott Effross to New York. In the 6 starts Wesneski made last year he tallied 33 strikeouts across as many innings while eclipsing his 4.5 line in 4 of those games. He was excellent at limiting both hard-contact and free passes due to his fantastic control. This allowed him to reach the 5th inning or later in 5 of those starts.

Wesneski has elevated his fastball velocity to 96-97 MPH at times this spring, up from his 93.1 average last season. That type of added heat should make his best pitch, the sweeper, even more deadly. In his 6 starts last season the right-hander threw his sweeper 32% of the time. He allowed only a .299 xSLG with a 33.8% whiff rate on that pitch. During this spring Wesneski recorded 22 strikeouts in his 17 IP while topping this 4.5 mark in each of his last 2 appearances despite lasting only 3.1 and 5.0 IP. Last season he averaged just 15 pitches in between strikeouts. With 5 innings and 21 batters faced in his last exhibition start, we should see a similar workload here, if not more. The Cincinnati roster is filled with swing-and-miss threats, and they project to have 6/7 targets in the lineup tonight. The price on this prop has been all over the place this morning but at this number I see some value.