Best MLB prop bet for today 4/1: Fading Madison Bumgarner

The MLB season is back, and so am I for my second season with the Pickswise family! After winning on Max Scherzer O5.5 strikeouts on opening day, let’s continue to build!

Madison Bumgarner (ARI) under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)

Veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner is coming off an extremely disappointing season. In 30 starts last year Bumgarner registered a 5.53 xERA which ranked 3rd percentile in all of MLB. He was constantly getting hit hard, ranking 13th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. His strikeout upside is severely limited as the 33-year-old recorded only 112 punchouts in his 158.2 IP. With an average of 24.24 pitches between each strikeout, Bumgarner was held under this 4.5 line in 20 of his 30 starts last year, good for a 67% hit rate towards the under.

Last season Bumgarner averaged a shade over 90 pitches per start. In the spring he made 3 starts while recording 76 pitches in his final outing. He only recorded 1 strikeout in those 76 pitches and had a combined 6 strikeouts in his 11.1 IP total. At this stage of his career, he just simply isn’t generating enough whiffs to rack up strikeouts in a consistent manner. As for the matchup, Bumgarner was held under this total in 2 of the 3 games last year while recording a combined 9 Ks in 17 IP. This year’s Dodgers lineup is a bit different with some new faces, but still projects to be an overall patient lineup. Vargas, Taylor, and Thompson are our 3 main concerns as they do like to K, but overall, there is too much to like here to pass up.