The NBA season is now over and the NHL season could finish tonight if the Panthers win, but have no fear, there is still plenty of baseball to watch and bet on! Tonight’s slate is a big one in MLB with every team taking the field, so it gave me plenty of choices for my favorite player props of the day. After a deep dive, here are my best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, June 18. You can also find our'MLB picks for todayR 17;s big games.
Aaron Nola (PHI) Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
It's a heavyweight battle between the Padres and Phillies in Philadelphia tonight, and the pitching matchup is set to be a good one as Michael King and Aaron Nola are the scheduled starters. Nola has had a solid season thus far with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.68 xERA, but he's coming off his worst start of the year. In 3.2 innings against the Red Sox, he was shelled for 8 runs and 11 hits in just 3.2 innings. He also recorded just 2 strikeouts during his short outing. A low number of punchouts isn't out of the ordinary for the LSU alum since Nola's strikeout rate has been declining for the last few seasons.
In 2020, Nola had a stunning 33.2% strikeout rate. However, his strikeout rate has declined each season since then. In 2024, his punchout rate is just 22.2%. Nola also has an extremely difficult matchup tonight against the Padres, who have some of the best contact hitters in the business. San Diego has just an 18.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, which is the 2nd lowest in baseball. At plus-money odds, I'm taking a shot with the value.