This Sunday slate in MLB presents us with a full day of baseball action, and numerous games are worth tuning into and watching. From a betting perspective there is one pitching prop that stands out to me today, so let’s dive in!
George Kirby (SEA) under 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-110)
George Kirby has gotten off to a strong start in 2024, pitching to a 3.58 ERA with similar underlying run indicators as last season. Kirby was a popular Cy Young pick during the offseason and spring training, and while he is certainly a top of the rotation arm, I am betting against his strikeout prop today. It is never fun betting against pitchers with stuff as good as Kirby, but the matchup is presenting us with some solid value at current pricing.
Kirby thrives on command of the strike zone, ranking 98th percentile in BB% and 2nd among qualified pitchers in strike rate behind Jared Jones of the Pirates. This tends to lead to a ton of contact against him, however, as Kirby ranks just 36th percentile in whiff rate this season. Despite a 2.4% jump in K% to begin the season, resulting in Kirby to clear this 5.5 line in 5 of 9 starts made, his underlying strikeout numbers are in line or worse with last season. His swinging strike rate of 10.5% is actually down from last season’s 10.9% rate, while his CSW% has dropped as well. Kirby is generating fewer swings on pitches outside the zone, and when he does draw opponents to chase, they are having far more success connecting and fouling off pitches.