Welcome back, NFL! The 2024-2025 season kicks off tonight with the Ravens and Chiefs battling in Arrowhead…but first there is a busy MLB slate with plenty of day games to tune into.
In fact, I have found 2 player props in the early games, and both props are at plus odds!
Pablo Lopez (MIN) Under 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
I was incredibly surprised to see Pablo Lopez's strikeout prop set at 6.5, but I was even more shocked to see the under at such a good price. This season has been one to forget for Lopez who currently owns a 4.05 ERA which is his highest mark since 2019. He had a rough start to the year and never seemed to bounce back — until now. Lopez has thrown back-to-back-to-back shutouts against the Rangers, Cardinals, and Blue Jays in his last 3 starts. Before those 3 starts, Lopez had thrown 1 shutout in his first 24 outings. It's clear that he’s figured something out since he's limited hitters to a .222 batting average in his 3 most recent starts, but this prop isn't about hits or runs, it's about strikeouts. That's something Lopez also hasn't been great at this season since his strikeout rate (25%) is nearly 4% lower than last season and it's even lower since the all-star break (21%). And here's the icing on the cake: Lopez has surpassed this number in just 1 of his last 5 starts. I'm expecting 5 punchouts for him on Thursday afternoon.