For the last 13 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the prop(s) I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
Framber Valdez (HOU) 5+ strikeouts/Astros money line (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.'
Framber Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers in Major League Baseball. His 5’11, 240-pound frame generates one of the single most dominant pitches in the league. His sinker registers at an average speed of 94 MPH. It has significant downward movement, as does his curveball and changeup. His sinker has a run value of -9, which is elite. Valdez’s ground-ball rate sits 67.9% — 23% higher than average. That is mostly due to throwing his sinker 50.5% of the time. He ranks 2nd in ground-ball outs this season behind only Sandy Alcantara — but in 21.1 fewer innings.
Valdez has recorded a quality start in 14 straight appearances. His 2.64 ERA has a 74th percentile xERA to back it up. Despite issues with walks, he still maintains a WHIP of 1.11. When on the road this season he has a 1.76 ERA and a .154 batting average allowed. Astros have won 9 of his last 12 starts, including a 4-2 victory over the Angels on July 3 — when he racked up a season-high 13 strikeouts. His 85th percentile barrel rate and 86th percentile xSLG match up well with the Angels’ 3rd-worst ISO against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. They also rank 29th in K%, OPS, SLG, AVG and wOBA with a wRC+ of 69 against left-handers in that span.
He isn’t the biggest strikeout pitcher, but Valdez has recorded 5 or more Ks in 12 of 17 starts — including in 10 of his last 12. The Angels have struck out at least 5 times in 8 consecutive contests started by lefties. Those pitchers have combined for a 1.21 K/IP. In his most recent start against the Angels Valdez’s sinker had a 33.3% whiff rate with a put-away rate of 42.9%; his curveball had a 71.4% whiff rate and 40.9% put away rate. While the extent of his success was a bit of an outlier, we only need about 40% of that strikeout production tonight.
Reid Detmers is coming off his 2nd-best start of the year, but the Angels still lost that game and he is still fade material in my eyes. His barrel rate and xERA each sit 22nd percentile. He has an 18th percentile xSLG and struggles to make batters miss. Detmers is prone to walking batters and his fly-ball rate is 7.5% higher than league average. With wind blowing out and facing the Astros, that could prove problematic. Houston in the last 30 days against left-handed pitching ranks 2nd in SLG and ISO, 3rd in OPS, 4th in wOBA and has a wRC+ of 139. The bullpen advantage is also clear for Houston, which ranks better in nearly every statistical category.
Astros are 49-20 this season as favorites for 9.54 units of profit. Los Angeles is 7-25 as an underdog for a loss of 16.73 units. Since beginning the season 27-17, Los Angeles has lost 33 of its last 45 games and now sits 11 games below .500.
Prop parlay: Corbin Burnes (MIL) over 17.5 outs/Triston McKenzie over 17.5 outs (+146)
To win 1U. Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.