For the last 13 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the prop(s) I am eyeing up on Wednesday’s MLB slate.
JT Brubaker (PIT) over 4.5 strikeouts (-128)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
As the season continues and lines become sharper, I find it important to dive deep into what pitchers are doing to see why they are or are not succeeding. Sportsbooks are not delving into increased usage of certain pitches or alternate approaches pitchers are taking. They look at results and react. As bettors we should be looking for these short-term windows in which books are yet to adjust.
JT Brubaker is a prime example in my eyes. The 28-year-old right-handed pitcher has shown signs of increased strikeout productivity over his last 6 starts. Brubaker has cleared this 4.5 line in each of those starts. One reason for the increased production is that his leash has been extended. Brubaker has thrown 94 or more pitches in each game and is averaging 99.7 per game during that stretch. He had seen 90+ pitches only twice this year before that span.
The Pirates’ right-hander has thrown his 4-seam fastball and changeup for a combined 12.7% of his pitches this season. Over the last 6 games, however, that rate has dropped to 4.2%. This was smart on his end as both pitches were getting hit hard. He has bumped his curveball and sinker usage up around 4.5% on each pitch as a result. The curveball is what really stands out to me as he has a 33.7% whiff-rate and 26.5% put-away rate on that pitch this season. While he has only 13 Ks on that pitch overall this year, 11 have come in the last 6 starts, including 7 in the last 3.