Yesterday’s article finished 1-1 with Tanner Bibee falling short of his strikeout prop, but the Los Angeles Dodgers offense pouncing on Lance Lynn early. With all 30 MLB teams in action once again, MLB fans are going to have plenty of entertaining games to choose from. We have 2 daytime baseball games on the slate, but the featured pick for this article once again comes in the White Sox at Dodgers game. Let’s dive in!
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 6+ strikeouts / Dodgers ML (-148) (0.5U)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 7+ strikeouts / Dodgers ML (+100) (0.5U)
I have successfully bet against Clayton Kershaw twice this season by fading his outs recorded prop in tough matchups. The future hall-of-fame left-hander is still one of the league’s better arms, however, and in today’s matchup I look forward to backing him. Kershaw’s elite 69.4% first pitch strike rate sets him up in favorable counts more often than not. He is able to draw batters out of the zone with his 33.2% chase rate that ranks 88th percentile. The 48% chase contact rate allowed on those pitches is 10.2% lower than league average and ranks 8th best among qualified pitchers. He also wins in the zone with regularity, allowing the 8th lowest zone contact rate in baseball. His 15.1% swinging strike rate is 4th highest on that list while his 32.1% CSW% is tied with Shane McClanahan for 2nd behind Spencer Strider. Kershaw ranks 4th in MLB in K-BB% at 24.1%, a stat that exemplifies his elite strikeout abilities and plus command.
Kershaw is striking out 33.3% of the right-handed batters he has seen this season while walking only 5.3% of them. That is massive for this matchup as the Chicago White Sox are projected to stack 9 right-handed bats in today’s lineup. Each of his 3 pitches have a put away rate of at least 21.5% against RHB, and both his slider and curveball sit at 27.3% with 40%+ whiff rates. The White Sox are a plus matchup for him given their questionable plate discipline. In the last 30 days they have the league’s highest chase rate while connecting on those swings at the 9th lowest rate. Their zone contact rate during that time is only 17th while they have recorded the 4th highest swinging strike rate at 13.1%. Kershaw has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 starts with 7 or more in 7 of those games. His pitch count averages well into the 90’s and 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts are positive signs for both his workload and efficiency.