Rain postponed the Pirates vs Tigers game on Tuesday, but for patient MLB fans it has resulted in what should be a great day of pitching in Detroit on Wednesday. Jared Jones and Tarik Skubal will face off in the first game of the doubleheader with Paul Skenes likely facing Jack Flaherty in the 2nd game. Today’s MLB player prop article focuses on those 2 pitchers mentioned in the first matchup. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, May 29, while you can also check out our MLB picks for all of today’s big games!
Jared Jones (PIT) and Tarik Skubal (DET) both to record 6+ strikeouts (-117)
My first ever player prop article on Pickswise 2 summers ago was an over 5.5 strikeouts bet on Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal. He cruised past that mark with 9 punchouts in an advantageous spot, but the days of playable 5.5 lines for the Tigers ace are sadly long gone. The southpaw was my preseason Cy Young pick at 20/1, and he is now the odds-on favorite for the award in the American League thanks to a tremendous start. Skubal ranks 87th percentile or better this season in walk rate, xBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, swinging strike rate and called strike plus whiff rate. His 2.25 ERA is backed by a 2.42 xERA, 2.15 FIP, 2.55 xFIP and 2.59 SIERA.
Skubal’s 78.4% zone contact rate allowed is the 3rd-lowest mark among qualified pitchers, trailing only Cole Ragans and Jared Jones. He gets ahead in counts with regularity, tossing a first-pitch strike at the 3rd-highest rate among qualified arms. His high rate of strikes thrown, relatively low pitches per plate appearance for a strikeout-heavy arm, and his workload are all traits that allow him to work deeply into ball games. Skubal’s outs recorded line is heavily juiced towards the over on a 17.5 line, implying a strong probability he completes 6 full frames of work or more.