Best MLB player prop bets for today 4/8: Road woes for Berrios

We have no shortage of MLB action on this Saturday as a full 15-game slate should provide us with plenty of entertainment. There is a player prop in the that stands out to me in the Blue Jays vs Angels game. Let’s dive in!

Jose Berrios (TOR) over 5.5 hits allowed (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.

Jose Berrios has seemingly fallen off a cliff since the start of last season. The former Minnesota Twin signed a 7-year $131 million deal with Toronto but has failed to return value to this point.'He was a terrific fade candidate last season, especially when on the road. Berrios saw his 4.24 ERA at home jump to 6.36 when on the road. Opponents hit .303 against him in his 16 road starts, allowing 101 hits across 80.2 IP. He allowed 6 or more hits in 22 of his 32 starts overall, but 12/16 when on the road. One of those starts against this Angels team, and I took this same prop. Berrios allowed his 6th hit early on in the 3rd inning, along with 6 earned runs, and was eventually pulled from the game.

Last season he ranked 9th percentile or worse in xBA, xERA and xSLG. Berrios was 15th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity as well. One thing he did well was limit free passes, ranking 79th percentile in BB%, something he has always been good at. With just a 15th percentile whiff rate the Angels bats should have success putting the ball in play in this matchup. In his first start of the season Berrios allowed 9 hits and 8 earned runs to a Kansas City offense that has otherwise struggled to begin the year. In 74 combined plate appearances against Berrios, this active Angels roster has a .328 batting average and .405 xwOBA. There are a lot of angles supporting a Berrios fade and this is my favorite way to do so.