Jameson Taillon is a low strikeout rate arm at this point in his career and draws a tough matchup against a contact-oriented team in extremely favorable hitting conditions. Today’s temperatures in Chicago will sit in the low-to-mid 90’s while wind will be blowing out around 17 MPH in the most wind-receptive park MLB has to offer. Let’s dive into the article to see how I will be fading Taillon today.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-102)
Across 61.1 innings of work this season, Chicago Cubs right-handed starter Jameson Taillon has only recorded 43 strikeouts. His 8.0% swinging strike rate is a career-low mark and sits just 13th percentile in MLB this season. Taillon ranks just 4th percentile in whiff rate and has struggled to miss bats within the zone, allowing the 10th highest zone-contact rate among starting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched.' He does draw opponents outside the zone at a slightly above average rate, but his chase contact rate allowed is 6.2% higher than average. Now Taillon draws a matchup against a Mets lineup he has already faced this season.
New York didn’t produce much offense against Taillon the first time, allowing the right-hander to record a season-high 7.1 innings while scoring only 1 run on a solo home run. Taillon only struck out one Met in that game, however, despite facing 27 batters. With just a 3.8% swinging strike rate in that game, Taillon allowed a ton of contact, especially considering he only walked 1 batter. The right-hander has remained under this 4.5 strikeout prop in 8 of his 11 starts this season, and now will make a start in extremely favorable hitting conditions.