Welcome to Week 12 of the college football season.
Each week, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on select games.
We had a 5-1 showing in Week 11 and we’re looking to get on the plus side in Week 12. Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits and live odds across the college football market.
Season record: 50-54-1
Navy Midshipmen at UCF Knights (-16.5, 53)
Wes Reynolds: At 3-7, Navy is going to miss a bowl game for the third straight season. Nevertheless, as we saw last week, the Midshipmen do not quit. Navy was down 35-13 to Notre Dame and then proceeded to outscore the Fighting Irish 19-0 in the second half in a 35-32 defeat. The near comeback was not without cost, as junior QB Xavier Arline injured his ankle and did not return in the fourth quarter. Senior Maasai Maynor took over for the rest of the game. Arline is more of the traditional triple-option QB for the Naval Academy and Maynor is more of the passer. UCF will have to prepare for both.
UCF won on the road at Tulane last week and has placed itself in the driver’s seat to make the AAC Championship Game as it owns tiebreakers both over Cincinnati and Tulane, who are also 5-1 in the conference. Off that huge win, UCF now has to get back up for an 11 a.m. kickoff in the “Bounce House” against a triple-option team that is 5-0 ATS on the road this season. That is not the easiest spot for sure, particularly off the biggest win of the season and with a rivalry game on deck against USF.
Knights QB John Rhys Plumlee returned last week, throwing for 132 yards and a touchdown and also rushing for 176 yards and two TDs. Plumlee is the better fit for Gus Malzahn’s offense, but Navy is tough against the run, only allowing 85.8 yards/game. UCF will certainly gain substantially more, but the Midshipmen rank ninth nationally in terms of yards per carry. Last week, Navy held Notre Dame to just 66 yards on the ground. Earlier in the season, they held Cincinnati to 55 and Air Force, the nation’s leading rushing attack, to just 200 yards rushing.
With the early morning kick, there is a possibility that UCF could be asleep early on, so it may be prudent to split the first half and full game.
Pick: Navy +9.5 1H/+16.5 Game
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Florida State Seminoles (-24, 52)
Adam Burke: There are plenty of quirky games this week, but this one is pretty high on the list. Florida State has Florida on deck in the annual rivalry game and the Gators have won three straight, including a 41-14 romp in Tallahassee back in 2018 – the last time the teams played at Doak Campbell Stadium because COVID-19 canceled the 2020 game. That 27-point win tied for the largest margin of victory for the Gators since 2009.
So, it stands to reason that the Seminoles would be peeking ahead to that game. Louisiana needs a win to become bowl eligible, something that likely happens the following week against Texas State, but a crack at a top-25 opponent on the road feels like a bowl game for the Ragin’ Cajuns, who have played better the last two weeks. Three of Louisiana’s five losses have come in games decided by six or fewer points and most of its games have been lower-scoring. They just don’t have the profile of a team that gets blown out often.
This also feels like a game where Florida State could ease off the throttle with a lead, which could mean benching Jordan Travis in the process. Backup Tate Rodemaker is just 17-of-30 for 209 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. This feels like a win-and-get-out kind of game for Florida State, which makes Louisiana’s 24-point head start pretty intriguing.
Pick: Louisiana +24
Florida Gators (-14, 57.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Wes Reynolds: Former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea is in his second year as the head coach at Vanderbilt, the toughest gig in the SEC by a country mile. Lea snapped a 26-game SEC losing streak last weekend with a 24-21 victory at 24th-ranked Kentucky. The win was not a fluke either as Vanderbilt outgained Kentucky 448-322, sacked first-round prospect Will Levis four times and held him to just 109 passing yards.
Florida, which defeated Vandy 42-0 in Gainesville last season, just clinched bowl eligibility in Billy Napier’s first season with an easy 38-6 victory against South Carolina. The Gators also have Florida State on deck next week and are just 1-8 ATS as road favorites over the last three seasons. Napier, while he looks to have Florida on the right track in his first year, was just 7-6 ATS as road chalk during his four seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette.
It is an obvious long shot for 4-6 Vanderbilt to win out against Florida and Tennessee to get bowl eligible, but some of that ‘feel good’ they got last week should carry over here for at least a competitive performance.
Pick: Vanderbilt +14
TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5, 58) at Baylor Bears
Wes Reynolds: TCU proved many, including myself, wrong last week with a 17-10 victory at Texas. The Horned Frogs did not win with their No. 12 total offense, but did so with their defense as they held the Longhorns to 171 total yards and 1-for-13 on third downs.
The Horned Frogs stayed at No. 4 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and seemingly have control of their playoff destiny. Now they hit the road for a short trip to Waco and only lay -2.5 to a Baylor team that was routed 31-3 at home by Kansas State last Saturday?
TCU has seemingly played a high-leverage game every week since September 24th against Metroplex rival SMU. Then, they trounced Oklahoma, won on the road at Kansas in a battle of unbeatens, came back from down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat Oklahoma State in double OT, rallied from a 28-10 deficit to defeat Kansas State, held on late at West Virginia, rallied to beat Texas Tech after trailing to start the fourth quarter, and then the win at Texas last Saturday. How many times can TCU keep answering the bell?
Sonny Dykes’ club deserves a lot of credit, but to be fair, it has benefited from several breaks (i.e. facing back-up and third-string QBs, fortunate officiating calls, etc).
Last year, it was TCU that played spoiler and defeated Baylor to keep the Bears out of the College Football Playoff. This week, it’s Baylor’s turn.
Pick: Baylor +2.5
Tim Murray: Both Wes and I are fading TCU this weekend? What could go wrong? After I bet on TCU as a 6.5-point favorite at Kansas on Oct. 8, the Horned Frogs have become my nemesis. I thought TCU would fall on the road last week at Texas as a seven-point underdog (update: they did not). The Horned Frogs had a tremendous defensive game plan last week and held Texas RB Bijan Robinson to a season-low 29 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Baylor has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season. The Bears got crushed, 31-3, last weekend at home against Kansas St. Baylor has also lost road games at BYU and West Virginia this season. However, Baylor won (and covered) three straight games against Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. In order for Baylor to win, the Bears will need a better performance from QB Blake Shapen. Shapen threw two interceptions and no touchdowns last week against Kansas St.