The 2023 NCAA tournament is finally here, and VSiN has you covered with best bets on every single game throughout March Madness.
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Here are our experts' best wagers for the first round:
No. 9 West Virginia (-2, 137.5) vs. No. 8 Maryland
Zachary Cohen: Maryland was 312th in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted tempo this season, and the Terps were also 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. When you combine a slow pace with an elite defense, you’re bound to get some low-scoring games. And when you add in the fact that there will be some jitters for some of the players that haven’t been in this position before, it’s hard not to love the Under in this game — no matter how good West Virginia can be offensively. There’s a reason this number is dropping. And it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Under was 16-7 when Maryland played against teams with winning records this season.
Pick: Under 138.5
Josh Appelbaum: One of my favorite March Madness angles is looking for fishy lines that don't make sense — and then taking the fishy side. West Virginia is the 9-seed and Maryland is the 8-seed however. However, West Virginia is favored by two points. Why is the 9 favored over the 8? Shouldn't it be the other way around? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This line opened WVU -2 and has touched -2.5 at some shops. Essentially all liability is on the Mountaineers. West Virginia has the edge in strength of schedule, hailing from the ultra-competitive Big 12 compared to Maryland coming from the lackluster Big Ten. Bob Huggins has decades of Big Dance experience. West Virginia also has the superior adjusted offense (117.1 vs 114.1) and played the fourth-hardest adjusted strength of schedule.
Pick: West Virginia ML -130
No. 13 Furman vs No. 4 Virginia (-5.5, 132)
Wes Reynolds: After five frustrating seasons, Furman finally broke through and won the Southern Conference Tournament (plus a share of the regular season title) and will be in the NCAA Tournament in Bob Richey’s sixth season. The Paladins are led by two fifth-year seniors— SoCon Player of the Year Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell. Tony Bennett and Virginia run the Pack Line defense that forces opponents to shoot over the top from distance. Well, that’s not an issue for Furman as they have the 13th highest three-point rate (46.4%) in the nation. Furman’s “Princeton offense” gets them good looks inside as well (# 1 in the nation for 2-Pt percentage with – 59.1%), and UVA will miss Ben Vander Plas’ defense and rebounding down low as he is out for the rest of the season with a broken hand.
Pick: Furman +5.5
Tim Murray: Can Virginia's offense take advantage of the 183rd-rated defense in the country? It is certainly possible but Furman leads the country in two-point field goal percentage, and the Paladins shoot 46.5% of their shots from beyond the arc. It is a fascinating matchup considering the Cavaliers play at the third-slowest pace in the country. If Furman is not connecting, it could be a long day for the Paladins. Since Feb. 4, Virginia is just the 65th best team in the country according to Bart Torvik. The Cavaliers also lost starting F Ben Vander Plas for the season with a hand injury.
Pick: Furman +5.5
No. 10 Utah State (-2, 155) vs. No. 7 Missouri
Danny Burke: Mizzou struggles mightily when it comes to successful free-throw shooting and in the rebound department. This should present a clear advantage in crucial stat departments for the Aggies. The Tigers are a team that can be 3-point reliant, but Utah State counters fairly well with a defense along the perimeter that is allowing opponents to only connect on 28.8% of their 3-point attempts.
Pick: Utah State ML -130
Josh Appelbaum: Another fishy line system match. Utah State is the 10-seed and Missouri is the 7-seed. However, Utah State is favored in this game by 2-points. Why is the 10-seed favored over the 7-seed? Isn't the wrong team favored here? The public thinks so. Currently 65% of bets are taking Missouri plus the points. However, despite this public betting on Mizzou, the line has remained frozen at Utah State -2. This signals a sharp line freeze on contrarian favorite Utah State, with pros fading trendy dog Missouri. Ken Pom has Utah State winning by four points (83-79), which provides an actionable edge on the Aggies at the current price. He also has Utah State ranked much higher (18th vs. 51st).
Bet: Utah State ML -125
Dave Tuley: I actually had my eye on Utah State as a potential first-round upset candidate, but obviously oddsmakers were high on the Aggies as well as they opened them as short favorites despite being a No. 10 seed vs. a No. 7. They’re certainly going to be a popular bracket pick, but I don’t like the matchup here and feel Missouri should be favored, so I’ll take the points with the higher-seeded team. Utah State has a balanced attack – and supporters love that the coach is Ryan Odom, who led Maryland-Baltimore County to the only No, 16 upset of a No. 1 seed (Virginia) in 2018 but Missouri will have the best player on the floor with emerging star Kobe Brown (15.9 PPG, 6.2 rebounds per game, 45.3% on 3-pointers). He also has a strong supporting cast as they took care of Tennessee in the SEC Conference Tournament before running into Alabama.
This should be a shootout with neither team excelling on the defensive end, though oddsmakers have protected themselves from Over bettors by setting this as one of the highest totals of the first round at 154.5 points.
Pick: Missouri +2
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 Kansas (-22, 145.5)
Adam Burke: The Jayhawks played 24 of their 34 games this season against Quadrant I opponents. Six of their games were played against Quadrant III and Quadrant IV opponents. Over those six games, Kansas averaged 83.2 points per game. There is a reason to believe that Kansas can exceed that average in this game and that would likely make it very hard for Howard to cover, even getting three touchdowns worth of points.
Kansas is 68th in the nation in TO% on defense at 20.2%. Howard is 356th in TO% on offense at 22.8%. The Bison did a good job of forcing turnovers, but teams in the MEAC throw the ball around pretty recklessly, so I can’t see them getting any extra possessions here. You can’t score without the basketball and I think Howard is going to have a ton of problems defending Kansas.
The Jayhawks had twice as many dunks as Howard, who went 0-3 in Quadrant I games with an average margin of defeat of 29.3 points. The Bison were also only 4-6 in Quadrant III games, picking up 15 of their 19 wins against Quadrant IV teams and three more against non-Division I opponents.
If the Bison took better care of the basketball, I could see them hanging around, but they’re going to throw too many possessions away to keep up with Kansas’s offense.
Pick: Kansas -22
No. 5 San Diego State (-5, 141.5) vs. No. 12 College of Charleston
Wes Reynolds: The Mountain West went 0-4 in the first round last season, dropping its record to 1-11 in NCAA Tournament first-round games since 2016. However, they get a good schematic matchup in this one with a 31-win Charleston team that will be a trendy upset pick in the first round. Charleston loves to get out and run in transition (fifth in transition rate, per Hoop Math), but San Diego State takes away the transition game (No. 1 nationally in transition rate allowed, 19.8%). The Aztecs can switch all positions 1-through-5 defensively and will make it difficult for the underdog Cougars to make threes (SDSU is #7 nationally in 3-point percentage allowed with 29.7%), which is a prerequisite for pulling an upset.
Pick: San Diego State -5
Kelley Bydlon: The College of Charleston has been a great story this season, going 31-3, but this is where their story ends. Ken Pom has over an 8-point difference in Adjusted Efficiency Margin between these two teams. Charleston will try to speed up San Diego State, but I don’t expect it to work.
Pick: San Diego State -5
Steve Makinen: For the second straight season, the Mountain West Conference lands four teams in the tournament. Last year, they were 0-4 SU/ ATS, dropping their record in the BIg Dance to 21-53 SU/22-49-3 ATS since 2001. They have lost nine games in a row collectively as well. Mountain West champ San Diego State is favored over a dangerous Charleston team that boasts a 31-3 record and can put some serious points on the board. In addition, according to my Shared Traits article, the Aztecs (along with Kansas State) boast the most marks as potential upset victims, a perfect report card no less. I have to trust the data in this game. And most of it points to the Cougars.
Pick: Charleston +5.5
Dave Tuley: It’s a cliche to take a No. 12 seed vs. a No. 5, so I really had to convince myself that I wasn’t playing College of Charleston just because of the seedings. You don’t go 31-3 in any conference without being sound on both ends of the floor and Charleston plays defense and has five players that average in double figures, so they fit the bill. San Diego State was the class of the Mountain West, which sent four teams to the Big Dance, but the conference has struggled in the NCAAs in recent years and the Aztecs – who I don’t feel are as good as some of their recent teams – are a vulnerable favorite. Charleston’s defense gives it a chance against SDSU’s methodical offense, especially as the Aztecs can have scoreless stretches if their mid-range jumpers aren’t falling. But as is the case with most March Madness upset bids, this probably comes down to whether Charleston hits its 3-pointers.
Pick: Charleston: +5.5
No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 2 Arizona (-14, 152.5)
Jonathan Von Tobel: Both teams run high-tempo offenses. The Wildcats are fourth in the country in offensive efficiency with a top-10 tempo, and Arozpma should be able to score at a fast pace. Princeton also played in a high-scoring Ivy League and will be willing to match the pace.
Pick: OVER 153.5
No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 8 Arkansas (-1.5, 144)
Matt Youmans: My faith in coach Eric Musselman remains strong despite the Razorbacks’ shaky finish to the regular season. Arkansas blew a double-digit lead in the second half and fell to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament, triggering Musselman to drop F-bombs on his way off the floor. Musselman will have his players motivated, and he’s finally got Nick Smith Jr. back in the backcourt with Anthony Black, Davonte Davis and Ricky Council. The Illini are fading more than fighting, losing three of four games entering the tournament.
Pick: Arkansas -3
Danny Burke: Illinois’ volatility will be its downfall – along with playing in a weaker conference all season. Arkansas has the advantage both offensively and defensively, and is more successful at the charity stripe. Remember to factor in how well both teams do at the foul line, as it can be the deciding factor in you cashing a ticket or not.
Pick: Arkansas ML -145
Kelley Bydlon: Arkansas enters the tournament with a good coach in Eric Musselman and two players expected to be lottery picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. I think they take care of business against Illinois and possibly make more noise in this tournament than expected.
Pick: Arkansas -2
No. 9 Auburn (-1, 152.5) vs. No. 8 Iowa
Steve Makinen: Totals going over in the first round of the NCAA tournament aren’t usually popular picks in the professional betting circles, but as I look at this game I see a matchup that has the potential to be explosive. Both teams are going to want to push the pace here, and while I like Iowa’s ability to make shots, I also like the athletes Auburn brings to the table. My Bettors’ Ratings show this game should have a total of 155.7, a rare 2.7 surplus at this time of year. Plus, 8-9 matchups have had a tendency to go over recently (16 of the last 21 games).
Pick: OVER 153
No. 12 Oral Roberts vs. No. 5 Duke (-6.5, 146)
Mitch Moss: Oral Roberts is fourth in the country in scoring at 82.5 PPG. The program shocked Ohio State in the tournament two years ago as a 15 seed, and it will not be intimidated to play the Blue Devils. Duke is a top-10 team in offensive efficiency over the past three weeks. I expect plenty of points in the game.
Pick: Over 146
No. 15 Colgate vs. No. 2 Texas (-14, 147)
Matt Youmans: After crushing Kansas in the Big 12 tournament title game, the Longhorns appear to be in peak form, but overlooking the Patriot League champs would be a mistake. Colgate – 20-1 in its past 21 games – is making its fourth consecutive NCAA trip for coach Matt Langel and his team hung tough in previous tournament losses to Wisconsin, Arkansas and Tennessee. Senior guard Tucker Richardson leads five double-figure scorers who all shoot the 3 — meaning the Raiders are not lost beyond the arc.
Pick: Colgate +14
No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 7 Northwestern (-1.5, 128)
Danny Burke: Northwestern’s offense is abysmal and Boise State can counter very nicely on the defensive end. The Broncos are a solid 3-point shooting team as well (36%), while Northwestern’s weaker part of their defense is defending 3-pointers.
Pick: Boise State +1
No. 16 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 1 Houston (-19.5, 122.5)
Mitch Moss: The Cougars excel at pounding bad teams. They're the second-best team in the country vs. weaker competition via Erik Haslem's “paper tiger effect” metric. They also maul teams on the glass, and Northern Kentucky is not a good offensive rebounding team. Getting this at -19 feels like a bargain for a 1 seed.
Pick: Houston -19
No. 13 UL Lafayette vs. No. 4 Tennessee (-11.5, 136.5)
Adam Burke: It is extremely rare to see a team that ranks in the top five in offensive rebounding percentage be so averse to taking shots at the rim. Tennessee is not a well-coached team and Rick Barnes finds a way to underwhelm in the NCAA Tournament on an annual basis. He’s had tons of talent between Texas and Tennessee, but sports a losing record at 25-26 in the Big Dance. He’s also bad against the spread, which comes as no surprise.
Maybe the Vols cover against Louisiana and maybe they don’t, but it is the under that interests me in this game. First, I don’t expect Barnes to have his team ready to play. Second, this is a Vols team that takes a lot of 3s for not being very good at it. Tennessee has a 40.4% 3P Rate while only making 32.9% of those attempts. You would think a big team that does well on the offensive glass would take more shots at the rim and also be better at 2-pointers, but they’re not. The Vols are just slightly above the national average in 2P%.
I don’t think Louisiana will have much success getting inside to get high-percentage looks here. It comes down to their 3-point shooting, which was great at 36.6%, but Tennessee led the nation in 3P% defense. The Vols are also the better team at forcing turnovers and the team that plays at a slower tempo, so they could really bog this game down.
The Sun Belt ranked 14th among the conferences in adjusted defensive efficiency and I’m not sure Louisiana can light it up here. Tennessee doesn’t light it up often. This should be a decent under look.
Pick: Under 136.5
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (-3, 134.5)
Wes Reynolds: Two teams that made runs to their respective conference tournament finals before falling short meet up here. Texas A&M likes to take away the lane and is willing to give up a large amount of three-point attempts, and they do so at the 12th-highest rate in the country (45.9% of Aggies opposing shot attempts are beyond the 3-point line). That is bad news against Penn State who shoots threes at the 10th-highest rate (47.4% of the Nittany Lions’ shot attempts are 3s), and they make 38.5% of them (No. 9 nationally). The Aggies also like to create offense from their defense, but that is difficult against a Penn State team that hardly ever turns the ball over (13.7%, the sixth-lowest TO rate in the country).
Pick: Penn State +3
Adam Burke: The weak nonconference schedule played by Texas A&M left their NCAA tournament chances in doubt deep into the month of February, but the Aggies went 15-3 in SEC play and had several nice victories in league action, including wins over Tennessee and Alabama. Per Bart Torvik, Texas A&M was actually the sixth-best team in the country from Jan. 1 until Selection Sunday; Penn State was 47th.
The Nittany Lions live and die by the 3-point shot, which can be a blessing and a curse at this time of the year. Over 47% of Penn State’s shot attempts are 3s, but Texas A&M held opponents to 32.3% from deep. Another potential advantage for the Aggies is that they get to the rim effectively and Penn State does not. Only 26.3% of Penn State’s shot attempts were classified as “Close Twos” per Torvik (which encompasses layups, tip-ins and dunks), while over 40% of Texas A&M’s shots fit that description. Those are much higher-percentage shots to take than long jumpers.
The Aggies also forced a lot of turnovers and were a top-10 offensive rebounding team. Penn State was 362nd in the country in TO% on defense and 361st in offensive rebounding percentage. The Nittany Lions also play at a slow tempo, so they could be in deep trouble if their 3s aren’t falling. I don’t think they will and I think Texas A&M is simply an all-around superior team.
Pick: Texas A&M -3
No. 15 NC Asheville vs. No. 2 UCLA (-17.5, 134.5)
Matt Youmans: A season-ending injury to Jaylen Clark, the team’s No. 3 scorer and top defensive player, has left Bruins coach Mick Cronin without much depth. UCLA represents a huge step up in class for Asheville, but Cronin will not want to play his stars for extended minutes in the second half. The Bulldogs are capable ‘dogs in terms of covering this big number. It’s a senior-heavy team led by 6-foot-10 Drew Pember, who averages 21.2 points and 9.4 rebounds as the top player in the Big South. Pember attempted and made more free throws (262-for-314, 83%) than any other player in the nation. Tajion Jones, a senior guard, is shooting 45.6% from 3-point range with 98 made 3s in 34 games. Asheville is the type of team with enough scoring options to get a backdoor cover, if that’s what is needed.
Pick: UNC Asheville +18
FRIDAY'S GAMES
No. 10 USC vs. No. 7 Michigan State (-1.5, 137.5)
Greg Peterson: The Michigan State defense overall is 135th in the country in points allowed per possession, but allows 12.6 points more per 100 possessions when on the road. Opponents are making 42.4% of their two-point shots in games USC plays away from home, the best road opponent two-point shooting percentage in the country while ranking 12th in blocked shot rate. Michigan State is generating a turnover on 14.4% of opponents possessions, which ranks 344th in the country.
Pick: USC ML
No. 14 Kennesaw State vs. No 3. Xavier (-11.5, 151)
Greg Peterson: Kennesaw State has the outside shooting to hang with Xavier, as the Owls rank 15th in the country in away 3-point shooting percentage at 38%. The Musketeers are 172nd in the country in points allowed per possession and 282nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Xavier lacks depth with just one player averaging at least 10.6 minutes per game off the bench while Kennesaw State has nine different guys averaging at least 10.5 minutes per game. I think the Owls can stay within this number.
Pick: Kennesaw State +11.5
No. 14 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 3 Baylor (-11, 143)
Greg Peterson: The Gauchos are one of the few teams in the country whose defense has been at its best away from home this season, with opponents making 39.3% of their 3’s at Santa Barbara and 31.8% when Santa Barbara is on the road. Baylor is 18th in the country in percentage of field goals that come from 3-point range away from home and overall Santa Barbara is allowing 4.6 points fewer per 100 possessions when away from home. Baylor has slowed down their tempo by nearly six possessions per game since the midpoint of the season, going from 75th in the country in possessions per game after 16 games to 188th.
Pick: Under 143
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's CA (-4, 123)
Ben Wilson: We’re buying the dip on elite efficiency and a veteran team in St. Mary’s that laid an egg in their conference tournament title game (a 77-51 loss to Gonzaga). With that combination, the Gaels should come out extra motivated and looking for something to prove.
Pick: St. Mary’s -3.5
Adam Burke: This should be one of the lower-scoring games of the tournament. VCU is known for its high-pressure defense and forcing turnovers, but Saint Mary’s is a well-coached, very experienced team that takes great care of the basketball. The Gaels are also one of the best rebounding teams in this field. Takeaways and extra possessions do a lot of heavy lifting for the Rams, and those may not come as easily in this game.
The Rams got a lot of quick baskets against A-10 opponents in transition, which helped their offensive numbers. Saint Mary’s is less likely to give those up and was one of the few teams in the WCC that played defense. In fact, they are 20th in 2P% defense and held opponents to 32.8% from 3.
Since Christmas, the only teams to beat Saint Mary’s are Gonzaga and Loyola Marymount, who beat the Gaels in the game following St. Mary’s emotional overtime win against the Zags. VCU had a TO% on defense under 20% six times and went just 3-3 in those games, with two of those wins coming in the A-10 Tournament. If VCU can’t force turnovers, the task gets substantially tougher. As long as Randy Bennett’s team takes care of the basketball, I think they will cover and advance.
Pick: Saint Mary’s -3.5
No. 15 Vermont vs. No. 2 Marquette (-11, 144)
Zachary Cohen: The Golden Eagles are also going to have a hard time shutting down the Catamounts. Vermont was 16th in the nation in 2PT% this season, while also being 65th in 3PT%. It’s hard to blow out a team that is this good offensively, and that’s exactly what Marquette will need to do with a spread this big. And Shaka Smart’s team was just 4-6 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this year. On top of that, Vermont is 17-7 ATS against teams that make 8.0 or more 3s per game over the last two seasons. The Catamounts are comfortable in shootouts.
Pick: Vermont +11.5
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 Creighton (-5.5, 148)
Adam Burke: Creighton has the profile of a top capable of making a very deep NCAA Tournament run. They’re just outside the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency and firmly inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. Both Ken Pomeroy and Torvik have Creighton as a top-15 team. This is also a team built for the NCAA Tournament. They have a great point guard in Ryan Nembhard and a dominant big in Ryan Kalkbrenner.
NC State is a very talented team, but an inconsistent one. The Wolfpack were blown out three times by a Clemson team that didn’t even get invited to the Dance. They lost close, low-scoring games. They had some wins that stood out, but only went 1-6 in Quadrant I games and Creighton absolutely fits that criteria. The Bluejays were just 3-9 in Quad I games themselves, but we’re talking about teams like No. 2 seeds Texas, Arizona and Marquette. NC State’s Quad I losses were to No. 4 and No. 5 seeds like Virginia, Duke and Miami.
Creighton is the better team and the team that is better about getting to the rim, thanks in large part to Kalkbrenner. The Bluejays also have one noteworthy edge in this game. The line implies that this game is right in the sweet spot for a foul fest at the end. Creighton is shooting nearly 77% at the free throw line.
NC State is a really talented team with a lot of upside, but Creighton is just too much to handle.
Pick: Creighton -5
No. 13 Iona vs. No. 4 Connecticut (-9.5, 143.5)
Matt Youmans: This is likely Rick Pitino’s last ride with the Gaels before the coaching genius moves on to a bigger stage at St. John’s. Pitino has a 27-7 team that is solid defensively — allowing 65 PPG — and mirrors UConn in some ways. Iona’s Walter Clayton, a 43% 3-point shooter, and Daniss Jenkins can match up well with the Huskies’ guards, and 6-9 forward Nelly Junior Joseph is physically tough enough to battle with a Big East front line. UConn opened -11, a number that was too high, but I’ll still take nine points with Pitino.
Pick: Iona +9