With two weeks of data on teams, we can start moving slightly off our preseason priors. It’s still important to acknowledge that we are still only working on two weeks of football, a sport where wild things can happen, as we saw three 20-point comebacks this week. (Each team had less than a 2% win probability as one point.)
Entering Week 3, I have a bet on a young, rising team and a bet against one that desperately needs to blow things up.
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Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (+300)