There's a lot of reasons to tread very lightly Thursday night. The Dolphins have a janky injury report with availability of key players up in the air on the eve of the game. A horrible storm has cut into Miami's already truncated work week, and the Bengals have tricked more bettors thus far this season than they have treated (too soon for Halloween fodder?).
At the beginning of the week, with the line much closer, I really liked the Bengals in this spot. But we are over a 3-point spread now, and the number of unk nowns about this contest have only seemed to grow with each passing day. I believe the Bengals are going to win this football game. But I also believe, as has been the case throughout this season, it might be ugly. The average NFL game this year has produced 42 points.
The Dolphins are bound to be a little overvalued with them being one of only two remaining unbeaten teams, but there has been plenty of good fortune involved in that. And the Bengals seemed to learn a few lessons last week about truncating the scope of their offense, giving the offensive line more help and being willing to keep it simple and win ugly against inferior teams. I like them to crawl back to .500 in the short week at home. But I don't love much here.
- More TNF picks: Model | Expert'| Props | DFS
Spread: Bengals -4
If I have to pick a side here, I'll pick the one with the healthy quarterback. Joe Burrow is super accurate and he still has a bounty of weapons, even if they aren't getting unlocked down the field as much as he'd like. The Bengals defensive front is stout, while Miami's unit has not looked as ferocious as the group that closed 2021 on a tear. Neither team can run the ball much, but I imagine both of them will try to keep this close and navigate the flow of the game. With Miami's defense on the field for more than 40 minutes and 90 plays in the heat on Sunday, I'll give the points here, but this is a coin flip.