Sunday games get a bit murky. Cincinnati currently sits as +5.5 underdogs on the road against the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals will likely be without RG Alex Cappa and OT Jonah Williams this Sunday, which is huge. Minus a few bumps and bruises, the Bills expect to have their full roster from the previous week. I see clear mismatches on paper for this game. The Bills pass rush is mediocre and the worst of all the teams remaining based on pressure rate. Buffalo's secondary is the worst position group on the team, and they do their best to mask that by limitin g their blitz rate, 10th fewest rate in the league. The Bengals aren't without their own weaknesses. CB Eli Apple is a liability in coverage and Burrow & Co did not look spectacular last week vs Baltimore. It's worth mentioning the Bills have not had a home playoff loss since 1996 and remain unbeaten in the postseason with Josh Allen at Highmark Stadium. Whichever team can hold the other to under 30 points wins this game.
Joe Mixon over 75.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120)
Much is being made of the Bengals issues at offensive line. They've struggled to protect Joe Burrow before Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa went down.' Sunday will be a test for backups Jackson Carman and Cordell Volson to say the least. HC Zac Taylor will want to limit the amount of drop backs early on and play keep away from Josh Allen. If the Bills establish an early lead, it will be difficult to protect Burrow with Buffalo pinning their ears back against this inexperienced left side of the O-line. That is why it is important to establish the run early for Cincinnati. Mixon has seen double digit carries in 5 straight games to end the season and 16.75 per game in last year’s post season run. On passing downs, creating plays for Mixon to be the first read will help mitigate Buffalo's pass rush and get the ball out of Burrow's hands quickly.
Mixon still managed 11 carries last week against Baltimore, despite the Bengals having the ball for only 27:34 (well below their season average of 31:36min). Through the air, Mixon has been as active as ever; finishing the regular season with 5+ receptions in the last 3 games. This line is well below his season average of 87.4 combined yards per game and has dipped below the standard 80.5 we've been seeing. It's a buy-low spot on Mixon, who will be a big factor in this matchup. 1.5U