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NFL fans glimpse the future as two young quarterbacks battle on Sunday Night Football, with Caleb Williams leading the Chicago Bears into a matchup against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.
Stroud's career went off without a hitch last year, finishing third all-time among rookie quarterbacks in passer rating and passing yards in the regular season en route to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. By contrast, Williams' NFL debut last week was a complete dud, as he managed just 93 passing yards and zero touchdowns.
However, as part of my Week 2 NFL predictions, my Bears vs. Texans prediction expects Chicago to cover for a second consecutive week, especially since last week's performances inflated the Sunday Night Football odds. We also have a deeper dive with our Bears vs. Texans SNF prop bets.
Best Bears vs. Texans picks
NFL picks&nb sp;based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Bears +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Texans ???
- Player prop: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions (-104 via FanDuel) ????
Bears vs. Texans spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
I always prefer to be on the contrarian side of wagers, fading the public when the majority is overwhelmingly on one side. That is the case in this Sunday Night Football matchup, as 71% of the wagers are on the favored Texans.
The odds were stacked against Williams in his NFL debut despite the Bears kicking off as 4.5-point favorites. Previous quarterbacks who went No. 1 overall were 5-22-1 SU in their first career starts.
However, it is a testament to a team that can overcome 93 yards passing from their quarterback and 148 yards total to stick together and scrape o ut of a 17-0 hole. The Bears proved that being solid in two of the three phases of a game (defense and special teams) is sometimes enough, which is a great recipe for winning on the road.
Perhaps we should not be shocked by Chicago's outstanding defensive performance in Week 1, as it was one of the NFL's best units towards the end of last year. Over the final eight games of last season, the Bears' defense ranked first in points per game allowed (17.1), second in takeaways (19), and fourth in Total QBR while winning five of those games.
That unit improved its points per game allowed to 15.5 over the final six weeks, so they can cover the spread in a defensive slugfest even if their offense does not improve.
Williams' 3.2 yards per attempt were the second-fewest in an NFL debut by a first-round draft pick all-time. However, as a rookie, he is the only top-five quarterback pick to ever play with two 1 ,200-yard wide receivers from the previous season. His connection with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will eventually come. We break down his game even more in our Caleb Williams player props.
This is as sharp as a line gets, as all of our best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of 6.5 points at -110 juice on both sides. However, I feel the public is overreacting from last week in driving the line up 1.5 points from an opening of -5.
A winning $10 wager at BetMGM's -110 odds would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Bears vs. Texans player prop
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Stroud faces a Bears defense that tied for the league lead with 22 interceptions last season.
While we already pointed out Chicago's defensive success over the season's final eight games, it is worth noting that its statistics are eye-popping relative to how little pressure it generated on the quarterback. In that eight-game span, Chicago pressured opposing quarterbacks on 28% of dropbacks (25th), generating a 6% sack percentage (t-21st).
This is a four-star play. Regression should soon come for Stroud in the turnover department. His 18 turnover-worthy plays resulted in just five interceptions last season, and he did not throw an interception in Week 1 despite three turnover-worthy throws. < /p>
We have a few other plays for the signal-caller in Philip Wood's C.J. Stroud prop bets.
Based on Caesars' -111 odds, the implied probability for Stroud to throw an interception is as high as 52.61%, so I am taking advantage of better value at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would return $9.62 in profits.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
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Bears vs. Texans odds
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Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bears vs. Texans
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 84 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4 mph wind SW
- Favorite: Texans (-275 via BetMGM)
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