The Chicago Bears (0-2) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) on Sep. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 3 matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).
The Bears vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 3 game with 78.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this Week 3 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.95 Units / 74% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears went 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Bears are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- Bears are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bears are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI).
- Chiefs are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -29.33% ROI
- Chiefs are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bears are winless (0-10) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .482.
The Bears were winless (0-7) when allowing 250 or more passing yards in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
The Bears were winless (0-8) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.
The Bears are winless (0-9) when allowing 300 or more passing yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .431.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Chiefs were 7-2 (.778) when rushing less than 25 times in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .315.
The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) after a home loss since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .458.
The Chiefs are 6-1 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed an average of 153.4 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — second-worst in NFL.