Can the Chicago Bears flip the script and take a step forward with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback after finishing in last place in the entire NFL last season? Find out in our Chicago Bears betting preview based on the odds from the best sports betting apps.
The 2022 season didn't unfold as the Bears franchise had hoped for, but they did catch a break in Week 18 when their former head coach, Lovie Smith, and the Houston Texans came from behind to defeat the Indianapolis Colts, gifting the Bears the first overall pick in the NFL Draft.
With Justin Fields already established as their starting quarterback, the Bears chose to trade the draft pick to the Carolina Panthers, securing valuable draft capital, and perhaps more importantly, a new weapon for Fields at wide receiver. D.J. Moore, who accumulated 5,201 receiving yards in his first five seasons with the Carolina Panthers, now enters his first season with the Bears.
With a fresh addition on the outside and expectations of a significant improvement from their three-win season a year ago, the question arises: Are the expectations still too high for Fields and the Bears in the betting markets?
Check out our 2023 Chicago Bears betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chicago Bears betting preview 2023
| FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 7.5 (-122) ?? | 7.5 (-130) | 7.5 (-125) | 7.5 (-125) | 7.5 (-145) ?? |
| Under | 7.5 (+100) ?? | 7.5 (+110) | 7.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+115) ?? |
After winning only three games last season and finishing with the worst record in the NFL, there's an expectation that the Bears will take a leap forward in Fields' third season as the starting quarterback. Though you may believe the Bears will be much better this season than the last, it doesn't mean you should immediately head to the window and smash the Over on their regular-season win total.
Trading at a total of 7.5 wins, the idea that the Bears will be better than last season is already very much factored into the equation here. Going from three to eight wins isn't just a light improvement from one year to the next. My projection for the Bears is to win 7.5 games, which aligns exactly with the total we're seeing at all of our best sportsbooks. With this projection, we can price the Bears at -106 to go Under their win total of 7.5 wins.
Considering that the Under is trading at either even money or plus money across the board, we are seeing a slight edge with an Under bet on the Bears, with the highest expected value coming at PointsBet. For comparison, if you were to bet the Under on the Bears at FanDuel at +100, your expected value would be 3%. However, attacking the +115 price point available at PointsBet, your expected value climbs to 11%.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +6000 | +5000 | +6600 ?? | +5000 | +4000 ?? |
| To win NFC | +2500 | +3000 ?? | +2800 | +2200 ?? | +2500 |
| To win NFC North | +400 | +425 ?? | +400 | +400 | +350 ?? |
When I use my power ratings and project how each team will finish in the NFC North, I have the Bears finishing in fourth place with 7.5 wins, but it's an extremely close call. The NFC North differs from many other divisions where there isn't a clear separation among the teams.
In my projection, I have the Lions finishing in first place with 9.1 wins, the Packers in second with 8.2 wins, the Vikings in third with 8.1 wins, and the Bears in fourth with 7.5 wins. The order in the NFC North can change quickly with just a couple of injuries or a surprise win/loss at any point in the schedule.
Considering the projection and the odds, I would be looking to bet on the Bears to finish in third or fourth place in the division, but my attention is drawn to the fourth-place finish because of a difference in pricing between DraftKings and BetMGM. At DraftKings, the Bears are trading at +220 to finish in fourth place, while at BetMGM, the Bears are trading at only +150 to finish in 4th place in the NFC North.
There's also a pricing gap for the Bears finishing in third place in the division, with DraftKings offering +220 and BetMGM slightly longer at +240. However, that's nowhere near as enticing as the difference we are seeing for a fourth-place finish at +220 and +150. The much bigger price discrepancy in the Bears finishing in fourth place is why I'm opting to pursue that prop via DraftKings.
| FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -220 ?? | -180 ?? | -210 | -210 | -210 |
Based on my power ratings and projection for the Bears to win 7.5 games, all of the team futures for the Bears in this article are going to be tightly priced. This is evident in the win total, and it's the same for the Bears' odds to make the playoffs. Even though the edges are small, thanks to some rogue prices available in the market, they are worth taking advantage of.
Considering my projection of the Bears winning 7.5 games, we can price their odds of making the playoffs at +208 and their odds of missing the playoffs at -208. This aligns closely with the odds that most of our best sports betting sites are offering for the Bears. However, a rogue -180 price available at DraftKings presents an opportunity to place a bet.
At first glance, one might consider passing on this bet because the expected value isn't very h igh at 5%. However, I tend to view it differently. The fact that I arrived at a -208 price point for the Bears to miss the playoffs, and other trading teams settled on a -210 for the same outcome, makes me even more confident that when we place this bet, we indeed have an edge over the -180 odds available at DraftKings.
| Player | DraftKings | Projected Rushing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | +250 | 1,009 |
| Aaron Jones | +350 | 1,030 |
| Alexander Mattison | +350 | 973 |
| David Montgomery | +450 | 810 |
| A.J. Dillon | +700 | 734 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +1000 | 803 |
First of all, props to DraftKings for getting creative with these futures markets and posting them on their sportsbook. When it comes to player futures markets, there are plenty of fanbases that want to back players from their favorite teams, but unfortunately, they lack strong contenders who can compete to win in any of the markets.
Breaking it down further, focusing on leading the division in a specific statistical category instead of the entire NFL, opens the door to many other players. So, why am I looking at backing Fields in this bet to have the most rushing yards in the NFC North? Well, for starters, even though he's a quarterback, he's projected to rush for 1,009 yards this season. This projection places Fields only 21 yards behind the projected leader, Aaron Jones, who is expected to have 1,030 rushing yards.
At first glance, one might thin k to consider Jones, who is trading at +350 instead of +250 like Fields, but I have a different opinion on this pricing. The main reason I prefer Fields in this market, even though he's the favorite at +250, is because of his ceiling and opportunity. Last season, in 15 games, Fields rushed for 1,143 yards, and if he maintained that pace, he would have rushed for 1,295.4 yards. Unlike many of the other rushers in the division, Fields' position and role in the offense are guaranteed. He is going to be the starting quarterback for the Bears, and the ability to run will always be a fundamental part of how he is utilized in the offense.
In contrast, many of the other running backs in the NFC North division do not have the same guarantee in their role within the offense, and they are stuck in situations in which they have to split their time on the field. For instance, we have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in Green Bay, and Alexander Mattison in Minnesota. Though Mattison is expected to see the bulk of the carries, it's also not a guarantee.
When we consider Jones, who is projected to win this market by 21 yards over Fields, we must acknowledge that he not only splits carries with Dillon but is also transitioning to a new offense under Jordan Love. Furthermore, Jones is 28 years old and entering his seventh season in the NFL, which is not young for running backs.
Unlike the other divisions in the NFL, the NFC North lacks a bell-cow running back or even the potential for there to be one. For this reason, I strongly favor Fields at this +250 price point at one of our best live betting sites to lead the NFC North in rushing yards.
| Player | DraftKings | bet365 | Projected Rushing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | +150 | +160 ?? | 1,009 |
| Lamar Jackson | +275 | +275 | 945 |
| Jalen Hurts | +400 | +400 | 775 |
| Anthony Richardson | +650 | +700 | 673 |
| Daniel Jones | +1400 | +1200 | 606 |
| Josh Allen | +1600 | +900 | 657 |
We're going after another Fields rushing prop, but this time in a completely different market. The appeal of both bets lies in the fact that Fields doesn't have any direct competition across both markets. Although these markets are similar, they also present distinct differences.
When we examine the competitors in this market, there are primarily two main threats: Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson. While quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen are solid when it comes to running, their projected rushing yards range from 600 to 700; that's just who they are as players. It's unlikely for them to make a significant leap to 1,100 or 1,200 rushing yards.
In my previous analysis, I highlighted Fields' guaranteed role within the Bears' offense as a reason to favor him for rushing for the most yards in the NFC North. Ad ditionally, his age and contract status play a crucial role here. Comparing him to other competitors in this market -Jackson, Hurts, Jones, and Allen – they have all been handed massive contracts to be their respective teams' franchise quarterbacks. While they will still be allowed to run, there's an angle that these teams may prioritize protecting their valuable assets and investments.
On the other hand, Fields doesn't fall into this category. The Bears are still determining if he will be their franchise quarterback, which gives him an incentive to rush for as many yards as possible to prove his worth and secure a franchise quarterback contract.
Regarding Anthony Richardson, I would recommend waiting to place this bet until there is more clarity on when he will make his debut for the Indianapolis Colts. Richardson poses the most significant threat to Fields in this market. Like Fields, Richardson is a young quarterback who will be willing to run as the franchise assesses his future. As soon as Richardson isn't named the Week 1 starter, I would come and place this bet on Fields.
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