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After two dominant victories, the USA women's soccer team will secure first place in Group B with a single point against Australia on Wednesday. A loss for Australia would probably result in their exit from the 2024 Olympics.
Emma Hayes aced her first two tests as head coach at a major tournament, with the Americans playing irrepressibly and expansively in the lopsided victories against Germany and Zambia. The USA opened their Olympics account with a 3-0 win over Zambia and beat Germany 4-1 in the follow-up encounter.
Australia struggled for extended periods in their two matches, losing 3-0 to Germany while overturning a 5-2 deficit with 30 minutes remaining against Zambia to secure an improbable, last-gasp 6-5 win.
Our Australia vs. USA odds, picks and predictions focus on the most likely goalscorer along with the best bet for Wednesday's encounter, o ccurring in Marseille, France. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET (USA Network).
The USA, the front-runners across our best sports betting sites to win Olympic gold, are comprehensive favorites to take all three points and win Group B.
Australia vs. USA predictions for Wednesday
Australia vs. USA odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Final score: USA 2 – Australia 1 (+650) ????
- Mallory Swanson anytime goal scorer (+120) ???
- Best bet: Over 2.5 goals (-160) ???
Australia vs. USA score prediction
While it's still early, the Americans have been the most dominant and entertaining team at the 2024 Olympics. If I were predicting the result based purely on form and recent performances, I'd say the Americans would win 4-1.
However, with the Americans already guaranteed a place in the quarterfinals, Hayes can rest some key players. She probably won't make wholesale changes, considering first place is still up for grabs.
But even a few personnel changes might open the door slightly for Australia, who showed incredible resilience and perseverance in their comeback win over Zambia.
That said, form, confidence, and a palpably superior head-to-head record are all decidedly in the Americans' favor.
The USA have lost just five times in 34 matches against the Matildas and are unbeaten in six (3 wins, 3 draws). Australia are still searching for their first victory against the USA at a major tournament (3 losses, 2 ties).
They'll have to wait a few years longer to break that particular streak.
The +650 odds will pay a profit of $65 on a $10 bet if the USA wins 2-1.
Odds: +650 | Implied probability: 13.33%
Australia vs. USA anytime goal scorer prediction
Mallory Swa nson has three goals on as many shots on target, a lethal 100% record. Swanson scored two against Zambia in 64 minutes and also netted versus Germany. The only reason this is a three-star play is the uncertainty about whether she'll start. While I can't see Hayes resting Swanson and Sophia Smith, there's a decent chance one will start on the bench.
If Swanson starts, her chances of scoring are excellent. She has six goals in 12 major tournament matches and is playing with more confidence than a superstar narcissist. The +120 will yield a $12 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Odds: +120 | Implied probability: 45.45%
Australia vs. USA best bet
All but one of the last six meetings between these two sides were decided by two goals or fewer. However, neither team looks assured in defense. The Americans conceded multiple Grade A scoring chances against German y, while Australia have conceded eight goals, five of which against an inferior Zambia side.
Offensively, both teams can score in bunches.
With 40 shot attempts and seven goals, the USA are creating chances for fun. Meanwhile, Australia broke free from the shackles in the second half against Zambia, scoring four goals in just over 30 second-half minutes.
The -160 odds will pay a $6.25 profit on a winning $10 bet. It's a three-star bet due to the high probability and diminished potential return.
Odds: -160 | Implied probability: 61.54%
Australia vs. USA odds & game info
| Australia | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +600 | -245 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+125) |
| Spread | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+105) |
- When: Wednesday, July 31
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Stade de Marseille (Marseille, France)
- How to watch: USA Network, Peacock (US), CBC Gem (Canada)
- Favorite: USA (-245)
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