Auburn vs. Houston: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

  • 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
  • 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
  • 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
  • 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Auburn vs. Houston


Player PTs REBs ASTs PTs + REBs PTs + ASTs PRAs 3Ps FTs
Wendell Green 13.2 3.8 3.9 17.0 17.1 20.9 1.2 5.3
Johni Broome 13.0 9.2 1.3 22.2 14.2 23.5 0.2 2.1
Jaylin Williams 8.3 4.3 1.7 12.6 9.9 14.2 0.9 1.5
Allen Flanigan 9.5 5.3 1.3 14.8 10.8 16.1 1.1 2.3
K.D. Johnson 8.1 2.1 1.2 10.3 9.3 11.5 1.0 2.5
Dylan Cardwell 2.3 2.9 0.7 5.2 3.0 5.9 0.0 0.2
Chris Moore 1.9 1.3 0.3 3.2 2.2 3.5 0.2 0.5
Zep Jasper 2.3 0.9 0.4 3.1 2.6 3.5 0.5 0.3
Tre Donaldson 1.5 1.2 0.9 2.7 2.4 3.6 0.2 0.3
Yohan Traore 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.0 1.2 2.1 0.1 0.2
Lior Berman 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.0 1.9 3.1 0.4 0.1
Chance Westry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Babatunde Akingbola 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jalen Harper 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chandler Leopard 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carter Sobera 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Player PTs REBs ASTs PTs + REBs PTs + ASTs PRAs 3Ps FTs
Marcus Sasser 10.2 2.0 1.6 12.2 11.8 13.8 1.3 3.0
Jarace Walker 13.0 9.1 1.7 22.1 14.7 23.8 0.9 2.1
J’Wan Roberts 12.2 10.7 1.1 22.9 13.3 24.0 0.0 2.6
Jamal Shead 10.9 3.8 4.9 14.7 15.8 19.6 1.1 1.9
Tramon Mark 10.3 5.8 1.7 16.2 12.1 17.9 0.9 2.9
Emanuel Sharp 5.8 2.7 0.4 8.5 6.3 9.0 1.1 1.5
Ja’Vier Francis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Terrance Arceneaux 3.8 2.9 0.5 6.6 4.3 7.1 0.4 0.4
Reggie Chaney 2.2 2.4 0.2 4.6 2.5 4.8 0.0 0.4
Ramon Walker 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ryan Elvin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Darius Bowser 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

  
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