Athletics-Yankees prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, May 10

A return home (and the return of Aaron Judge) has been the cure for what ailed the New York Yankees, as they've rolled to wins in the first two games of their three-game set against the Oakland Athletics in the Bronx. The Yankees will look to make it a clean sweep in an early Wednesday matinee, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Lefty Kyle Muller (1-2, 6.62 ERA) will take the mound for the A's, while New York counters with rookie Jhony Brito (2-3, 6.08).

The Yankees enter as heavy -215 favorites on the moneyline over at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Oakland is a +185 underdog. The run total is set at 9.5.

Yankees

Out: DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring), SP Carlos Rodon (back), SP Luis Severino (lat), C Ben Rortvedt (shoulder)

Athletics

Out: SP Paul Blackburn (finger), RP Trevor May (personal), INF Aledmys Diaz (elbow), OF Seth Brown (oblique), C Manny Pina (wrist)

Kyle Muller vs. Jhony Brito

After a solid first two outings, Muller has largely been a disaster since, with 22 runs allowed on 40 hits (including five homers) with 14 walks to just 13 strikeouts in his last five starts. The lefty largely works off of a four-seamer and slider, with the occasional change and curve mixed in to lefties. None of those secondaries are good enough to keep hitters off of a pedestrian heater, which sits in the low 90s and has allowed an eye-popping .691 slugging percentage against so far this season.

Brito is another young pitcher who's struggled badly after an auspicious start to his MLB career, allowing nine runs in 11.2 innings over his last three outings. The righty throws hard, but neither his sinker nor his four-seam fastball have a ton of spin, and neither of them miss many bats – and get hit hard as a result. His changeup is his only real putaway pitch, but without anything else to keep hitters honest, Brito has given up a ton of loud contact, ranking in the bottom 10 percent in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. He doesn't have much of a platoon split, as he doesn't have a pitch that breaks away from righties.

As outlined above, the recent history in this pitching matchup is not pretty, with neither starter seeming to have any answers right now. The first two games in this series have resulted in nine and 15 runs, and I don't see that trend ending today – especially not given the Yankees' success against left-handers this year.

Pick: Over 9.5

Muller really doesn't inspire confidence, but Brito has also been hit hard this year and could be vulnerable against a sneaky A's lineup. I think Oakland has a better shot of winning a slugfest here than the odds suggest, which makes them good value in this spot.

Pick: Athletics

  
Read Full Article