The Houston Astros (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 42-45 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin 1-1, 4.98 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 8-6, 4.90 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+15.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+15.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+13.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.70 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 67 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 44-43 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 2.74% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 33-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -23.46% ROI
- 51-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.8 Units / 15.34% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 42-45 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -3.64% ROI).
- 49-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.29% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.95% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -7.87% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (54/114) this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 60% (280/464) this season — tied for 6th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has walked 10 of 63 left-handed batters (16%) this season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — ninth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has walked 13 of 73 batters (18%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 77% (23 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez’s K:BB ratio is 7.7 (54/7) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.9 — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has walked 3 of 153 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 43% (28 SO in 65 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.