The Houston Astros (-250) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+190) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 83-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-85 ATS.
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 85.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.55 Units / 90% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.30 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+12.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+10.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Royals Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI).
- 83-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -4.43% ROI
- 78-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 68-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -10.31% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 64-85 against the Run Line (-33.85 Units / -18.87% ROI).
- 48-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.9 Units / -22.48% ROI
- 72-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -4.33% ROI
- 71-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.09% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (647/1,052) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (275/497) against Framber Valdez this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (715/1,516) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 6.44 (160.2 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.90 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .384 (43-for-112) against Jordan Lyles with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.