The Houston Astros (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-140) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Astros are 81-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 75-75 ATS.

Astros vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 7-12, 4.76 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 5-3, 3.54 ERA

Astros vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+38.40 Units / 154% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+16.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 40 games (+31.40 Units / 79% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 32 games (+18.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+18.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 132 games (+17.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 63 of their last 113 games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+5.30 Units / 8% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games (+16.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 118 games (+5.77 Units / 4% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+2.75 Units / 6% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 76-73 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 3.37% ROI).

• 81-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -4.09% ROI
• 61-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.68 Units / -18.85% ROI
• 84-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.4 Units / 9.92% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 75-75 against the Run Line (+2.67 Units / 1.44% ROI).

• 85-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 2.33% ROI
• 81-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.95 Units / 5.46% ROI
• 66-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.95 Units / -14.39% ROI

Padres vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Arrighetti has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (33 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .403 — second Percentile.

Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OPS of 1.046 (221 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .757 — 0 Percentile.

Spencer Arrighetti has walked 30 of 221 batters (14%) versus the top of the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.

Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 51% (74 SO in 144 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (323/643) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .146 (28-for-192) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 57% of the time (364/643) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .229 (44 Total Bases / 192 ABs) on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 98th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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