The Houston Astros (-165) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+135) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Astros vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 100-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 95-56 ATS.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+10.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 44 of his last 64 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 away games (+19.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 82-71 against the Run Line (+11.65 Units / 6.4% ROI).
- 100-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 5.13% ROI
- 55-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.55 Units / -24.2% ROI
- 88-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +26.8 Units / 15.8% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 95-56 against the Run Line (+28.25 Units / 14.26% ROI).
- 79-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.55 Units / 16.73% ROI
- 67-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.65 Units / -10.65% ROI
- 78-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 2.66% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .093 (51-for-547) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .148 (34-for-230) against Cristian Javier this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (65/239) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (501/971) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Austin Voth: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Austin Voth has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (69 Total Bases / 114 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .356 — 0 Percentile.
Austin Voth has a strikeout rate of just 38% (140 SO in 365 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (69/226) against Austin Voth since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .386 (44-for-114) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.