The Houston Astros (+) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+) on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 51-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-55 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 8-5, 3.65 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 7-7, 3.12 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 39 games (+19.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 51-46 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 5.3% ROI).
- 51-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.5% ROI
- 38-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.85 Units / -21.53% ROI
- 56-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.35 Units / 13.36% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 44-55 against the Run Line (-16.3 Units / -12.77% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 40-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.75 Units / -18.4% ROI
- 55-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 10.04% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (176/284) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (917/1,965) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (51/68) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (153/245) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 12 of 457 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 32 of 1,227 batters (3%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 13 of 470 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 8 of 216 left-handed batters (4%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.