The Houston Astros (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Astros are 87-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-78 ATS.
Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 4-6, 5.58 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 13-9, 3.79 ERA
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+23.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+23.60 Units / 112% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 43 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 71 away games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 102 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+9.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 75 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 160 games (+12.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 80-80 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 0.71% ROI).
- 87-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 65-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.35 Units / -19.06% ROI
- 90-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +18 Units / 10.15% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 82-78 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 3.43% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 5.9% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -11.53% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 2.88% ROI
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) |
0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) |
0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) |
0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) |
0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) |
0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) |
0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) |
2.5 -165 | 2.5 +130 |
| Justin Verlander (HOU) |
4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .226 (24-for-106) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .397 (31 GB hits out of 78 GBs) against Justin Verlander this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (78/269) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .265 (49-for-185) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Ben Lively’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (102/572) against Ben Lively this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed an OPS of .983 (190 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .760 — first Percentile.