The Houston Astros (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Astros are 87-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-78 ATS.

Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 4-6, 5.58 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 13-9, 3.79 ERA

Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+23.40 Units / 123% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+23.60 Units / 112% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 43 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 71 away games (+19.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 102 games (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 87 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+9.25 Units / 6% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+17.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 75 games at home (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 160 games (+12.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 80-80 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 0.71% ROI).

• 87-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -4.23% ROI
• 65-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.35 Units / -19.06% ROI
• 90-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +18 Units / 10.15% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 82-78 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 3.43% ROI).

• 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 5.9% ROI
• 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -11.53% ROI
• 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 2.88% ROI

Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .226 (24-for-106) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .397 (31 GB hits out of 78 GBs) against Justin Verlander this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (78/269) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .265 (49-for-185) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

13 of Ben Lively’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.

Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (102/572) against Ben Lively this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Ben Lively has allowed an OPS of .983 (190 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .760 — first Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
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