The Houston Astros (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-155) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 76-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-57 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 63 of his last 109 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 41 games at home (+17.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 107 games (+14.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 51 of his last 71 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 108 games (+25.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 95 games (+21.32 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 88 games (+3.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-59 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.93% ROI).
- 76-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 2.4% ROI
- 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -23.99% ROI
- 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.05% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 54% of the time (488/906) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (551/1,457) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (432/852) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (62/245) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (50/121) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (156/388) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 37% (142 SO in 382 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (99 SO in 251 PAs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.