The Houston Astros (+105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-125) on Friday, August 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 76-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 62-57 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 108 games (+16.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+16.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 62 of his last 106 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 50 of his last 70 games (+13.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 107 games (+26.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+14.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 94 games (+20.17 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 87 games (+2.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.25% ROI).
- 76-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 2.9% ROI
- 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -24.2% ROI
- 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.18% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 62-57 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 72-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.09% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.68% ROI
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (708/1,430) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (715/2,057) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Lance McCullers since the start of last season is 381.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Opponents are hitting just .151 (60-for-397) against Lance McCullers’ non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (106/175) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 50% (208/419) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (77/139) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 20 double plays in 107 opportunities (19%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.