Arizona State vs. Texas State Prediction, Picks & Odds, 9-12: Week 3

Bobcat Stadium should be rocking when Texas State is paid a rare visit from a Power Four conference team, as Arizona State comes to San Marcos, Texas, for a Thursday night matchup.

These two teams nearly have the college football audience to themselves on Thursday, as my Arizona State vs. Texas State predictions analyze one of the two games on the college football slate.

Texas State beat Baylor in a Week 1 road upset last season, but this is only the second time the Bobcats have hosted a Power Four conference team since the start of the 2017 season.

Best Arizona State vs. Texas State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Spread pick: Texas State +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Arizona State ????
• Player prop: Joey Hobert anytime touchdown scorer (+145 via FanDuel) ???

Arizona State vs. Texas State spread prediction: Week 3

Oddsmakers seemingly did not have a great handle on Arizona State early in the season. It won by 41 points as a 6.5-point favorite over Wyoming in its opener and had a 27-point lead before holding on to cover as a 6.5-point favorite against Mississippi State last week.

However, Texas State has been impressive in its own right, and we are backing it to cover the spread in one of the program's biggest home games in years.

While Arizona State turned heads in a convincing Week 1 win over Wyoming, Texas State was equally impressive in a 49-10 victory over UTSA as a 2.5-point favorite.

The Roadrunners had won nine of their previous 10 games dating back to last season, were 32-9 over the previous three seasons, and were picked to finish second in the American Preseason Media Poll in just their second year in the conference (they received four first-place votes).

Arizona State returned its top three rushers from a season ago, which helped to bring along red-shirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt early in the season. But Leavitt and the offense have not had to do too much after racing out to two big early leads at home the last two weeks, as he has attempted just 42 passes thus far.

Texas State is playing at a top-10 tempo this season, and that frantic pace should force Arizona State out of its comfort zone offensively, especially if the Bobcats are the first on the scoreboard.

This line is down a point from an opening consensus line of +2.5, and the reverse line movement, considering 67% of the wagers are on the favorites, suggests that sharp action is driving the change.

I am siding with the sharps with a three-star play, and my $1 0 wager at BetMGM would pay out $19.09 if it cashes.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Arizona State vs. Texas State player prop

Quarterback Jordan McCloud fits like a glove in the Texas State offense. That is not surprising, considering he finished last year in the top five nationally in Positive Play Percentage and EPA while under center for James Madison before being inserted in a Bobcats offense that ranked in the top 15 in Passing Success Rate last year. 

Texas State returns its two receivers who had eight touchdowns apiece last season, Hobert and Kole Wilson, and they will look to feast on an Arizona State defense that returned just four starters from a year ago.

McCloud has developed a better rapport with Hobert, as his 10 catches lead the team, while his two touchdown receptions are tied for the team lead. Considering Hobert and Wilson have nearly the same anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel (+145 vs. +155), I am backing the receiver, who has been the more reliable red zone target.

FanDuel's +145 odds for Hobert to score are an excellent value compared to DraftKings' +100 odds (which carries a 50% implied probability), as a $10 wager would pay out $4.50 more in profits ($14.50 vs. $10). 

Best odds: +145 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.82%

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Arizona State vs. Texas State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Arizona State vs. Texas State game info

• When: Thursday, Sept. 12
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, Texas
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 94 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph N
• Favorite: Arizona State (-120 via BetMGM)

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