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Week 5's been very tough for our anytime touchdown scorer predictions, but we began to dig out of that hole thanks to Rico Dowdle's fourth-quarter score at +215 odds last night. Let's make up some ground when the Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Saints for Monday Night Football.
We entered Sunday of Week 5 down 7.30 units for the season with our touchdown picks. An 0-for-4 afternoon slate – despite higher scores across the league – had us down a worrisome 11.30 units.
Though Scotty Miller failed to reach the end zone for the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night, Dowdle's second straight game with a score has us entering Monday Night Football down 10.15 units at our best NFL betting sites on the season.
Let's make some of that back to complement Mike Spector's Saints vs. Chiefs prediction.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Mond ay Night Football: Saints vs. Chiefs
Best odds: +550 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 15.38%
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The Chiefs are 5.5-point home favorites by the Monday Night Football odds. That should lead to a pass-heavy game script for the underdog Saints.
Should that play out as expected, it's likely to benefit Johnson against a Chiefs pass defense susceptible to big plays from tight ends. Kansas City's 8.90 yards per target given up to the position are the third most in the NFL through four-plus weeks. A 73.2% catch rate ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Johnson enters this matchup fourth on his team with 9.8 yards per reception. He led the Saints' position group with 68% of the snaps played last week, overtaking Foster Moreau for the first time this season. His lone touchdown catch of the season – in Week 1 – came in the red zone. He's just one of three Saints pass-catchers with a red-zone TD this season.
Place this bet at FanDuel where a winning $10 ticket fetches a $55 profi t vs. +350 odds at DraftKings.
Best odds: +550 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 15.38%
The Over/Under for MNF is set at a modest 43 points. However, our Phil Wood is leaning into offense with his Saints vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets.
While he's eyeing rookie Xavier Worthy to see a boost with Rashee Rice out, I'm looking to veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster to be the biggest befefactor.
Smith-Schuster caught a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3 but didn't receive a target last week despite playing 52% of the snaps. He's the most logical choice to fill Rice's receptions void alongside tight end Travis Kelce, with Worthy still best used as a deep threat.
FanDuel's market-best +550 odds would return a $55 profit on a winning $10 bet. The same wager placed on DraftKings' +350 odds would net just a $35 profit.
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