Angels-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, June 12

After dropping their first series in almost a month to the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, the Texas Rangers now head back home to welcome the streaking Los Angeles Angels to town for a big three-game set. First pitch of Monday's opener is set for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Park. Lefty Tyler Anderson (3-1, 5.62 ERA) will get the ball for L.A., while Texas turns to righty Dane Dunning (5-1, 2.52).

The Rangers enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Angels the +135 underdogs. The run total is set at 10.

Angels

Out: RP Ben Joyce (elbow), RP Matt Moore (oblique), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder), C Max Stassi (hip)

Rangers

Out: UTIL Brad Miller (oblique), RP Scott Barlow (illness)

Tyler Anderson vs. Dane Dunning

Anderson hasn't been able to recapture his magic from last season, when he posted a career-best 2.57 ERA over 178.2 innings en route to his first All-Star appearance. He's allowed 10 runs combined across his last two starts and has allowed fewer than three runs in a game just three times all year. The lefty's walk rate has spiked from 4.8% to 10.7%, which is death for a guy who doesn't have strikeout stuff and relies on balls in play to get outs, and hitters are getting ahead and then teeing off on his pedestrian fastball (.291 BA, .600 SLG).

Dunning has been a godsend for Texas, posting a 2.97 ERA across his first six starts since filling Jacob deGrom's spot in the rotation. (The first of those came against these same Angels, in which the righty spun five innings of two-hit ball.) Dunning hardly walks anyone, but he hardly walks anyone and uses his sinker and cutter to produce tons of ground balls. He is coming off his worst outing of the year, though, giving up four runs on seven hits (three homers) and two walks last week against the St. Louis Cardinals.

This is an enormous number, but I'll still take the over. I expect the Rangers to knock Anderson around a bit, and if they can get to six or seven runs on the night, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Co. should do enough to push us into double-digits. The trends aren't necessarily on our side here – the Angels have seen this over hit in just five of their last 21 games – but with Dunning due for some regression, I don't see either side falling short of the handful of runs we'll need.

Pick: Over 10

As dangerous as this Angels lineup can look at times, they also have a penchant for going quiet for long stretches, and I have more faith in the Rangers' bats to show up – and in Dunning to keep his team in the game given Anderson's recent struggles. At heavier odds, I might consider the underdogs, but there's not enough juice to squeeze.

Pick: Rangers

  
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