The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels face the fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, as we offer our Alabama vs. UNC expert pick and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
Two years after their run to the NCAA Tournament final, the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (29-7) are back in the Sweet 16 once again. This time, they'll face the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (23-11) on Thursday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with tipoff scheduled for 9:39 p.m. ET on CBS.
UNC survived an early scare from Michigan State in the second round before an inspired run before halftime effectively put that game away. The Tar Heels will surely hope for a better start against Alabama, which scored 24 points in the final 10 minutes to escape Grand Canyon and set up this Sweet 16 showdown in L.A.
As part of our March Madness predictions and accompanying our Sweet 16 odds and betting lines, here is our best Alabama vs. UNC expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Alabama (4) vs. UNC (1) expert picks
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel
Alabama is quietly one of the most dangerous teams in this field, with a top-five offense and a senior-heavy rotation. But this is a brutal draw for the Crimson Tide.
Nate Oats' team's calling card is its prolific scoring attack fueled by a breakneck pace. They rank fourth in offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted tempo, employing a frenetic approach leading to some atrocious defensive numbers, which ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency even on a per-possession basis.
Unfortunately for Bama, North Carolina is at its best when pushing the pace. The Tar Heels' guards-led by ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis (21.3 PPG) -love to attack in transition and in the secondary break and rarely get “sped up” in the process. They boast a top-25 turnover rate (14.2%) and attack the boards with reckless abandon, which has proven to be an issue for Alabama.
North Carolina also doesn't allow easy shots, ranking sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in opponent assist rate (40%). Meanwhile, Alabama's offense posted its worst scoring efficiency in a win (101.4) during the second-round encounter with Grand Canyon, which won't cut it against this versatile UNC defense.
The Tar Heels are as vulnerable to a cold spell as anyone, but this group, the most experienced in the tournament, should be able to weather the storm and punch its ticket to the Elite Eight.
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Best odds: +124 via DraftKings
While Armando Bacot only finished with seven rebounds in UNC's second-round win over Michigan State, the fifth-yea r senior had double-digit boards in four straight games and seven consecutive NCAA Tournament games previously.
As a result, our best sportsbooks are all over the place with this number. FanDuel is offering Over 10.5 rebounds at -140 odds, while Caesars is dealing Over 11.5 at a measly -104 price. Clearly, the +124 odds via DraftKings are an extreme outlier for what is already a favorable matchup for one of the tournament's most prolific rebounders.
I'm skeptical of Bacot impacting this game as a scorer in the way he did through the first two rounds, as guard play should be the driving force for these two offenses in a “first to 90” type of affair. But all those shot attempts should provide Bacot (6-11, 240) with a steady supply of rebounding opportunities on both ends of the court.
The 6-11, 240-pound forward ranks among the national leaders in offensive rebound rate (11.1%) and defensive rebound rate (25.3%), and he'll be the biggest player on the court at all times. At +124, I love his chances of taking advantage in a big way … literally.
Alabama vs. UNC odds
Alabama vs. UNC spread & Over/Under analysis
The Tar Heels are laying anywhere from 3.5 to 4 points across our best sports betting sites ahead of Thursday's Sweet 16 showdown with Alabama. Wit h most of the market at -4, we like this FanDuel line of -3.5 even at -118 odds – which is a better price than our half-point calculator suggests it should be.
If you're wondering what type of game to expect, oddsmakers have the total listed at 173.5, which is easily the highest total for any game this weekend. That said, KenPom projects this as an 86-84 win for UNC, so that elevated total might be a few ticks too high for comfort.
Alabama vs. UNC game info
- When: Thursday, March 28
- Tip-off: 9:39 p.m. ET
- Where: Crypto.com Arena
- How to watch: CBS
Alabama-UNC prediction made Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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