It's a heavyweight clash in the College Football Playoff between the Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide, and our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction for the Rose Bowl based on the best college football odds favors Nick Saban and Co. in a rare underdog spot at the college football betting sites.
Last season, the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) carried a perfect 13-0 record into the College Football Playoff but experienced an upset at the hands of TCU. The team aims to avoid a similar outcome on Monday in the Rose Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1), who have secured six of the last 14 College Football Championships.
This year, the Alabama team came close to missing the four-team field, but a statement win over top-ranked Georgia in the SEC Championship propelled the Crimson Tide into the playoffs for the eighth time in the 10-year history of the CFP. They find themselves positioned as underdogs at our best college football betting sites this time, marking just the fifth instance in 195 games dating back to 2010.
The Wolverines are seeking to erase the memory of last year's 51-45 loss in the Fiesta Bowl to a Horned Frogs team that flopped in the title game. They're also determined to demonstrate that Michigan's 13-0 season was more than just a fluke, especially with the sign-stealing scandal looming over head coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Alabama vs. Michigan prediction and our college football picks for Monday's Rose Bowl in the College Football Playoff (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Also head over to our College Football Playoff expert picks and College Football Playoff player props.
Alabama vs. Michigan prediction: Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff)
A few weeks before the final College Football Playoff reveal, Alabama's college football playoff odds could be generously described as a Hail Mary, having already lost to fellow playoff contender Texas in early September.
So, fittingly, the Crimson Tide converted the craziest 4th-and-goal you'll ever see to beat rival Auburn; snapped Georgia's 29-game win streak in a virtual road game ; and snatched the final playoff spot away from undefeated Florida State to set the college football world ablaze.
For all the consternation about the committee's choice, it was the right decision. Why? Because this is arguably the best team in college football, and it should be favored to win on Monday.
QB Jalen Milroe, the engineer of that jaw-dropping 31-yard rocket against Auburn, is a different player than the one who was benched in September.
Since Nov. 1, the standout sophomore has averaged 285.4 combined yards with 17 total touchdowns to just one interception, and he finished sixth in Heisman Trophy voting – ahead of Michigan's J.J. McCarthy (10th) – after leading Alabama to wins in his final 10 starts.
While the Wolverines boasted the nation's top scoring defense (9.5 PPG), they ranked outside of the top 40 in preventing explosive plays in the passing game. That's a c ritical mismatch against Milroe, who is arguably the best deep-ball thrower in all of college football. (Did you see that pass against Auburn? Yeesh.)
Speaking of that No. 1 ranking, Michigan's defense clearly benefitted from the lack of quality offenses across the Big Ten, which also helped the Wolverines build early leads and pound the rock with star rusher Blake Corum (1,028 yards, 24 TDs) and change-of-pace back Donovan Edwards (382 yards, 3 TDs).
That said, neither of those backs averaged 5.0 yards per game, and this offense as a whole ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in explosiveness. What happens when they face an Alabama defense that held Georgia to 78 yards on 31 carries (2.5 YPC) in the SEC title game?
If Michigan can't stay on schedule, I'm skeptical of McCarthy willing this team to victory through the air. After feasting on lesser teams early in the schedule, the junior saw his yards per at tempt drop through the year and has thrown just one touchdown since October while averaging 124 yards over his final four starts of the season.
He's also dropped off completely as a rusher, with a leg injury hampering what once made the athletic passer so dangerous. Now he faces a 'Bama defense with two All-Americans at cornerback (Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold) and another in edge rusher Dallas Turner, who has the potential to be a game-wrecker against a Michigan line missing its best player in Zak Zinter (leg).
Let's also address the elephant in the room: while Alabama is on the rise, Michigan hasn't looked like the same team that steamrolled opponents before analyst Connor Stalions, the staffer tied to the sign-stealing scandal, resigned. Whether that's because of the scheme itself or the cloud over this program, the results have been clear to see.
It's equally hard to ignore Harb augh's record in a spot like this. Michigan has gone 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 bowl games, while Nick Saban's Alabama group has won at least one postseason game in eight straight years and 12 of the last 14, and it's posted a 13-2 ATS record in its last 15 games with multiple weeks to prepare.
Alabama has faced one of the nation's toughest schedules and is the most talented team top-to-bottom in the country, with a star quarterback who is finally playing like one. It also hasn't been an underdog to a non-SEC school in 15 years.
I've labeled only one bowl game wager thus far as a five-star play: West Virginia -6.5 vs. North Carolina (WVU won by 20). This one deserves a five-star endorsement, too. This feels like a rare value spot on the Crimson Tide, and I will surely be taking advantage.
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Alabama vs. Michigan best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +1.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
This is a pretty sharp line, as you'd expect in the College Football Playoff, with all five of our best sports betting sites dealing Alabama as a 1.5-point underdog.
Fortunately, the fine folks at FanDuel – a book that loves to play the outlier role – is offering that same number with -105 odds. We'll take the pennies where we can get them, though I'd recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which books have a more substantial bonus offer.
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Alabama vs. Michigan odds
Alabama vs. Michigan odds analysis
The Wolverines briefly opened as 2.5-point favorites at some shops, though it didn't take long for the market to correct that line to Michigan -1.5, where it currently sits across our best sports betting apps. At this point, any further movement would likely come in favor of the underdogs, who should draw plenty of interest on the moneyline as kickoff nears.
We haven't seen much movement on the total, either, with a minor adjustment from an opening 45.5 to the current market consensus of 45 at four of our five best sportsbooks. The lone exception is (guess who?) our friends at FanDuel, who have dropped the total to 44.5.
College Football Playoff – Rose Bowl game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 60 degrees, 0% precipitation, 3-mph winds
Alabama-Michigan prediction made Thursday at 8:45 p.m. ET.
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