Free Daily NCAA Lock Pick, Wednesday October 18th: New Mexico State vs UTEP 9:00pmET
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No. 22 Air Force (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) hopes to add to their 11-game winning streak when they meet Navy (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) in an important game for the Commander-in-Chief's trophy on Saturday at 12pmET from Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, Md. Last season, the Falcons edged the Mids 13-10 at home as a 14-point favorite.
Air Force is off to the best start in more than two decades for a military academy. Both teams are coming off key conference wins and both squads lost their starting quarterbacks in the previous game due to injuries.
Air Force is coming off a huge 34-27 MWC win over Wyoming as a 13-point favorite, who just stunned a ranked Fresno State team the week before. Air Force has taken apart some pretty good teams, crushing San Diego State (49-10), San Jose State (45-20) and Utah State (39-21), covering all but last week's game. The Falcons ran for 356 yards on 53 carries and held the Cowboys to just 109 yards rushing and 212 passing yards. Quarterback Zac Larrier ran for 111 yards and a score and passed for 58 yards and a TD. But Larrier also suffered a knee injury and will be out indefinitely. This could be a devastating blow for the heavy-option Falcons, who are losing their only player to throw a pass this season (468 yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) and their second-leading rusher (473 yards).
The option is all about rhythm and timing. It will be difficult to replace the speedy Larrier, who has Mountain West titles in track for the 200 meters. Senior Jensen Jones did have 23 yards rushing against Wyoming and is the most likely to get the nod. The 6-2, 215-pound quarterback does have 190 career rushing yards and five career TDs, but has thrown just one pass in his previous three seasons. They'll have to rely more on fullback Emmanuel Michel, who has 497 yards rushing with eight TDs (4.4ypc).
Fortunately, they have a strong defense, which ranks third in the nation in yards allowed per game (240), and sixth in rushing yards allowed (77ypg), which is all that matters against Navy.
Free Daily NCAA Lock Pick, Wednesday October 18th: New Mexico State vs UTEP 9:00pmET CLICK TO SEE PICK NOW