Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are just a month away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can't wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has the potential to be our best yet.
The full-fledged preseason is nearly here. This is where we'll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we'll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which should prove to be top-quality entertainment.
In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we'll have this season, we're going to be analyzing each of the eight divisions across the NFL over the next two weeks. Combining our cutting edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we'll look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now. Be sure to check back here on Dimers.com every day as each subsequent preview is released!
MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now
Before we get started, we have to recommend that you head over to our revamped Best Sportsbooks section which features an all-new user-friendly look, complete with in-depth reviews of every online sportsbook. Even better, you'll be able to see which books are available to you specifically along with every exclusive promo offer you can take advantage of. The NFL is far and away the most popular sport in the United States for betting and there are countless daily and weekly promotions throughout the season. Having access to every possible book you can is crucial to turning a long-term profit over the season and beyond.
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NFL Divisional Previews
AFC East | AFC West | AFC South AFC North
NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South
MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions
AFC South Division Preview
| TEAM | ODDS TO WIN DIVISION | PROBABILITY |
| JAX Jaguars | -155 | 52.0% |
| TEN Titans | +350 | 30.4% |
| IND Colts | +600 | 11.6% |
| HOU Texans | +1000 | 5.9% |
Play this exact order of the AFC South standings for +310 on DraftKings!
2022-23 Record: 9-8, lost in Divisional Round
2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5
Key Offseason Moves: Re-signed TE Evan Engram. Drafted T Anton Harrison
Outlook: The 2022-23 season was the culmination of the franchise overhaul the Jaguars franchise badly needed. After jettisoning the first-year failure of a head coach, Urban Meyer, the Jags brought in Super Bowl-winning HC Doug Pederson to steer the ship. And with Trevor Lawrence as his first mate, they certainly did. Snatching the Titans' playoff hopes out from underneath them with an end-of-season run that included wins in six of their final seven games, coming to a head with a Week 18 victory over Tennessee. The following week, Lawrence shook off a 4-interception first half to guide the Jaguars to a win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round, before respectably losing to the eventual Super Bowl champ Chiefs the following week.
With the wind at their back and a rabid fanbase in #DUUUVAL County, anything short of a repeat of last season's effort will likely be considered a disappointment. The obvious favorite to win the division at -155, they get a 52% probability from our model to win the AFC South. At a 60% implied probability, this doesn't give us any value. Moving up another level, we see the Jaguars have a 7.5% probability to win the AFC, fifth-best in the conference, at their best odds of +1400. That's actually a slim edge, as the odds imply just a 6.7% chance. It's a solid bet if you're this high on the Jaguars. To hoist the Lombardi, we give them a 3.2% chance, dead-on with their odds of +3000.
Takeaway: As mentioned, you're getting value on the Jaguars to win the AFC at +1400. For reference, the other teams with similar probabilities have worse odds by comparison: Ravens: 8% (+1000), Chargers: 6.5% (+1400), Dolphins: 5.9% (+1300) and the Jets: 4% (+1000). This is the perfect example of what we look for here at Dimers.
As far as their win total is concerned, our most frequent result for the Jaguars is 10 wins, making their Over the better, play but the -140 isn't very appealing. Now, you can grab their exact wins at either 10 or 11 at +500. If you think it's a regression year for the Jags, 8 wins at +700 looks like the way to go, but given our model's average, we wouldn't stray too far away from that range.
For a longshot player prop worth a look, WR Calvin Ridley to reach 1,500+ receiving yards at +2000 makes a sweet play. He put up 1,374 yards when he played 15 games in 2020. With an extra game on the schedule and hopefully some fresh legs after a year off from a gambling suspension, this has some major upside.
I'm also personally a fan of Trevor Lawrence winning MVP. Not necessarily because I think it's his year, he's got stiff competition at the top, but because the value at +1500 is great for a player who could be a top-5 passer in a top-10 offense. His time is coming soon.
MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game
2022 Record: 7-10, 2nd place in AFC South