After providing picks for each of the four teams that make up the exceptionally talented AFC East, we turn our attention to the division itself. Check out our AFC East betting preview based on the best NFL odds.
The Buffalo Bills were once again the class of the AFC East last season, winning the division for the third straight year.
Meanwhile, the promising New York Jets stumbled to a 7-10 record and last-place finish thanks to subpar quarterback play. However, there's a new sheriff in town.
Can Aaron Rodgers lead the Jets to the top of the AFC East? Will the Bills own the division for the fourth straight year? Or will the Miami Dolphins emerge as the team to beat?
Check out our 2023 AFC East betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
AFC East betting preview 2023
| Team to win division | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +120 | +120 | +130 ?? | +125 | +120 |
| Jets | +270 ?? | +250 | +250 | +250 | +240 ?? |
| Dolphins | +300 | +290 | +275 ?? | +300 | +300 |
| Patriots | +800 | +800 | +750 ?? | +800 | +800 |
This bet, as well as most Dolphins futures, comes down to Tua Tagovailoa's ability to stay on the field. The Dolphins were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries caught up with their quarterback. They went 8-1 in the first nine games that Tua started last season.
I'm projecting the Dolphins to finish with around 10 wins, which would make winning the division a bit tricky (though I believe the Bills and Jets will also finish around that number). We're really betting on Miami's ceiling with this pick.
With a healthy Tua, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the running back duo of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., the Dolphins could very well finish the 2023 campaign as the best offense in football. Additionally, a defense that struggled down the stretch last season should benefit from another offseason with Mike McDaniel's coaching staff.
As outlined in our Bills betting preview, I'm betting on Buffalo to finish second in the division. The Jets offer another enticing option in this market, but I'll take the extra 30 points of value on a Dolphins team with a ceiling as high as New York's.
All three of DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 offer the Dolphins to win the division at this price. Basically, just avoid BetMGM.
Once again, we're banking on Tua staying on the field for more games than he managed last year. The thought process is that McDaniel believes Tua is the Dolphins' franchise quarterback, and the coaching staff will have hopefully spent this past offseason preparing its signal-caller to better avoid physical punishment. Could that be total nonsense? Absolutely. But let's dive into the numbers, anyway.
NumberFire, which assumes players will ta ke the field for all 17 games, projects Tua to finish with 4,460.31 passing yards, the fifth-highest total among all quarterbacks. ESPN's Mike Clay accounts for two missed games with his projection, but he still has Tua at 3,886 passing yards.
Meanwhile, NumberFire projects Bills quarterback Josh Allen to finish with 4,555.30 passing yards this season, and Clay has him at 4,179 passing yards. Allen is -130 at DraftKings to lead the AFC East in passing, an appropriate number given his projections.
However, we're betting on Tua because of the value. DraftKings has Rodgers at +250 despite the fact that NumberFire projects Rodgers to finish with 4,098.44 passing yards this season.
Therefore, based on the fact that Tua's 17-game projection is less than 100 yards below Allen's and nearly 400 yards more than Rodgers', this +350 price at DraftKing s provides us with great value.
Tua also has two of the best wide receivers in football to throw to, one of which I picked to win AFC Offensive Player of the Year in my Dolphins betting preview.
Buffalo should get off to a strong start this season, with a road game in Week 1 against the Jets proving to be one of the only real early tests. The Bills then have seven very winnable games following that before a Week 9 affair with the Cincinnati Bengals.
If the Jets come out of the gates slow with Rodgers, the Bills could very well march their way to an 8-0 start. Following Week 1, they have home games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers along with road contests at the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots.
We're betting on the strength of what I believe to be the NFL's best di vision with this pick. Three of the consensus top 10 teams via Super Bowl odds at our best sports betting apps reside in the AFC East, the most any division features.
As is the case with any Super Bowl bet, there's always the risk that the Kansas City Chiefs ruin this for us, which is why bet365 lists the AFC West as the favorite in this market. However, similar to our other bets, this one is about the number.
If you're going to bet on the AFC West, then you may as well just bet on the Chiefs. Similarly, if you're considering a bet on the NFC East, you're probably better off taking the Philadelphia Eagles, whose odds are much longer at our best sports betting sites than the +375 available for the division.
When it comes to the AFC East, having three true contenders available makes this group bet more appealing than riding with any single team. The fact that the division is n't favored is even better for us.
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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