Sports fans waited for months for the New York Jets to officially acquire the four-time MVP quarterback, but it only took DraftKings Sportsbook a day to post Aaron Rodgers prop bets for the 2023 NFL season. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has assessed the props and offers his opinion based on the NFL odds from our best sportsbooks.
Aaron Rodgers joined the New York Jets Monday, April 24, after quickly becoming one of the most polarizing stars in professional sports and forcing his way off of the Green Bay Packers. He's just one season removed from back-to-back MVP awards, but there's also a swarm of card-carrying critics citing his statistical decline and career demise.
With the NFL draft beginning Thursday, and the NFL regular season still five months away, a lot can change before Gang Green is playing meaningful football. Still, the prop markets availabl e through DraftKings provide an early opportunity to check in on Rodgers' outlook with the Jets.
Aaron Rodgers prop bets
| Passing yards: 4,050.5 | |
|---|---|
| Over: -105 | Under: -125 |
There was a steep decline to just 3,695 passing yards for Rodgers in 2022. He averaged a healthy 8.0 yards per pass attempt across his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021, but that number plummeted to 6.8 last year.
Yes, Green Bay ran out a lackluster corps of wide receivers and leaned on a run-heavy offense, but the Packers' offensive line was ranked third best by Pro Football Focus, and had the sixth-highest pass protection rank per Football Outsiders.
Rodgers ranking 14th in quarterback grade per PFF, and 21st out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play further reinforces a talent decline.
I have Rodgers conservatively projected for 4,025 passing yards, so I don't see any advantage on either side of this prop this far away from Week 1.
| Passing touchdowns: 30.5 | |
|---|---|
| Over: -110 | Under: -120 |
This is another high bar to clear after Rodgers threw for just 26 scores last season. It was the second consecutive year his touchdown total dipped, too.
Additionally, with the Jets finishing first in defense grade per PFF and fifth in defensive DVOA, I don't anticipate many high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs involving Gang Green. Rodgers can win games by protecting the football and leading long, clock-eating drives.
My conservative projection of 27 touchdowns from Rodgers falls well short of this total.
Lean: Under 30.5 passing touchdowns
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