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New York Jets fans have waited a year to see a healthy Aaron Rodgers lead the team under center. They'll finally get that chance tonight, but they're still sizable underdogs by the Monday Night Football odds against the San Francisco 49ers.
In many ways, this feels like Rodgers' Jets debut after he was hurt after just four snaps in last year's season opener. My Aaron Rodgers MNF player props, based on our best sports betting sites, examine whether the quarterback can shake off the rust and live up to the hype of him topping the Comeback Player of the Year odds leaderboard with +140 odds at DraftKings.
Rodgers is also 34 passing touchdowns away from passing Brett Favre for fourth on the all-time list, but read on to find out how many I project him for tonight as part of our NFL Week 1 predictions and to accompany my Jets vs. 49ers prediction.
Aaron Rodgers prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Aaron Rodgers to have the most passing yards (+106 via FanDuel) ???
- Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140 via FanDuel) ????
- Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 interceptions (-110 via DraftKings) ???
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Aaron Rodgers player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Rodgers faces stiff competition to outduel Brock Purdy for the most passing yards among the two quarterbacks, as Purdy led the league in QBR, yards per attempt, and yards per completion last year.
However, the Jets' defense also led the NFL in yards per play and finished second in passing yards per game allowe d (168.3) last year. I trust New York's revamped offensive line after ranking 30th in Pass Block Win Rate last year to give Rodgers enough time to attack San Francisco's secondary and for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to let Rodgers air it out often.
Our Jets vs. 49ers MNF prop bets have some thoughts on these signal-callers, too.
At bet365, both Purdy and Rodgers have identical O/Us for their passing yard totals (233.5), so any plus-money odds one can find are a good value for the four-time MVP to win this matchup.
A $10 winning wager would return $10.60 in profits.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%
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While Rodgers is a great value play to end with the most passing yards, that does not mean he will light up the scoreboard via the air. The 49ers allowed the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season.
San Francisco's defense also started strong out of the gate last year, allowing two or fewer passing touchdowns in five of the first six games. And while offseason acquisition Mike Williams may develop into Rodgers' best red zone target (he also leads the NFL with 15.9 yards per reception over the last five seasons), he should also be on a snap count in his first game back from an ACL tear.
This Under is juiced as high as -150 at BetMGM, so the best value is at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $17.14.
Best odds: -140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.33%
In Rodgers' last full season in 2022, he ranked outside the top 25 in yards per attempt. Couple that with the 49ers allowing the fifth-lowest yards per attempt last season, and Rodgers is not likely to take many risks downfield.
San Francisco did tie for the league lead with 22 interceptions last year, but Rodgers led the league for four straight years in interception percentage from 2018-21. And in what was considered a down year in 2022, his 2.2% interception percentage was not even in the worst four rates of his career.
The implied probability for Rodgers to go without an interception is as high as 53.49% based on Caesars' -115 odds, so I am making a $10 wager at DraftKings' -110 odds in the hopes of returning a $19.09 payout.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Jets vs. 49ers odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Jets vs. 49ers
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 84 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
- Favorite: 49ers (-200 via BetMGM)
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