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Aaron Judge is chasing down his own history-making home run barrage from 2022, and we're tracking his odds to go yard each day until the end of the season.
The Judge home run odds at our best sports betting sites have truly become comical. Judge is often trading as short at +120, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him at minus money before the end of the campaign.
With the Yankees outfielder hitting nukes for fun, the AL MVP race between Judge and Bobby Witt is essentially over, despite the latter having an incredible season of his own. That's how good Judge is.
Judge sits at 51 homers, and his American League record of 62 is well within reach.
Will opposing teams continue to pitch to him, or will his legendary power be his undoing as fellow World Series odds contenders avoid him completely?
Aaron Judge home run od ds today
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites | ?? = best available odds | ?? = worst available odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +150 | +150 | +170 ?? | +120 ?? | +140 |
Even for Judge, these odds are way too short. The longest price of +170 at BetMGM has an implied probability of 37%.
It feels outlandish to suggest someone has a 37% chance of hitting a home run on a specific day, and the projections support that on Tuesday.
Based on various projection models, we're understandably seeing value on Judge's Under more than the Over. It's still not worth a bet, but it shows just how ridiculously short these odds have gotten.
Will Judge homer today?
What can I say?
Are these odds too short? Yes. Would I personally bet on Judge to hit a home run at these odds? No.
However, is Judge a freak of nature who can hit a home run on literally any given day? Yes. Additionally, is Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin hot flaming trash? Absolutely.
At a certain point, with the odds this short, you just have to decide for yourself if you want to be on this ride until the end of the season, even when there isn't an edge on either side.
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This is my favorite bet of the day. Based on Judge's projections, we're getting nearly 20% positive expected value on Judge not to strike out against the Nationals on Tuesday.
That projection is likely based on two factors: Judge's strikeout rate is down to only 19% in the second half from 25% in the first half, and Corbin's aforementioned garbageness (not a word, don't care) on the mound.
Best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Aaron Judge stats & facts
| Games | 129 |
| Home runs | 51 |
| Runs | 104 |
| RBIs | 122 |
| Stolen bases | 6 |
| Average | .333 |
| OBP | .465 |
| SLG | .736 |
| fWAR | 9.6 |
Judge has 51 home runs entering play on Aug. 27.
Judge last homered on Aug. 25. He smacked two long balls against the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium.
Judge is projected to finish with 61 home runs this season.
The American League record is 62, which Judge set in 2022. The MLB single-season home run record is 73, set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
MLB betting odds pages
| World Series Odds | MLB Rookie of the Year Odds | MLB MVP Odds |
| MLB Cy Young Award Odds | World Series MVP Odds | MLB Win Totals |
| MLB Home Run Derby Odds |
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