The NBA season release does not come with the same pomp and circumstance as the NFL schedule release as an 82-game schedule does not carry the same urgency as a 17-game schedule does. However, despite popular belief that the NBA schedule does not matter due to the volume of games there are many early observations we can make to aid our handicapping once the season begins. Below you will find an observation for each team’s schedule this season that we can either use once the campaign begins or when playing season-long win totals.
Atlanta Hawks
The hardest stretch for Atlanta is an 11-game stretch from Dec. 28 to Jan. 18 which sees the Hawks on the road for seven games, including a four-game west coast trip that includes games against the Warriors, Clippers and Lakers. This stretch also includes standalone home games against Milwaukee and Miami – the latter coming on MLK Day – and wraps with a road game in Dallas. Atlanta projects to be an underdog in five of those games and the home games are coinflip spots at best, giving the Hawks a tricky path to navigate early in 2023.
Boston Celtics
Boston was the best road team in the league last season with a 31-22 SU/33-18-2 ATS record away from home, and once the calendar flips to 2023 they will be able to show off the road prowess. From Jan. 1 to Mar. 30 the Celtics will play 24 of 41 games on the road. The bright side is that there are no true west coast trips for the Celtics during this stretch, but the last three games of a six-game road trip does bring them to Portland and Utah on back-to-back nights before ending in Sacramento.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets were an atrocious home team last season, going 21-23 SU/9-34-1 ATS in both the regular and postseason at Barclays Center. Luckily they do not have to worry about that to open the season, as 12 of their first 20 games are on the road. That includes an early west coast trip with road games against the Clippers and Lakers on back-to-back nights and Ben Simmons’ assumed return to Philadelphia in late November. Side note: Don’t sleep on those first two home games against the Pelicans and Raptors, two teams consistently hovering around the Kevin Durant situation.
Charlotte Hornets
Supporters of Charlotte might want to take a break from Dec. 16 to Jan. 16 this season because the Hornets are put through a meat grinder for a month. Over the course of this 17-game stretch the Hornets will be on the road for 10 games, six of which come in the form of a west coast trip with games against the Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers, Trail Blazers and Warriors. Overall, the average win total of their opponent during this slog is 44.75 and that does not include whatever Brooklyn is by the time they host them on New Year’s Eve.
Chicago Bulls
Chicago is participating in one of the NBA’s Global Games and will face Detroit in Paris on Jan. 19 at Accor Arena. The Bulls will get three days off before the game and two days off after so that game should not be a problem from a scheduling standpoint, but the team will have to make up for that five-day stretch later. From Feb. 6 to Feb. 16 Chicago must play seven games in 10 days, a stretch that includes two back-to-backs and meetings with Memphis, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Milwaukee.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were a massive surprise last season in surpassing their win total by 16.5 games. Cleveland will not be surprising anyone this season and bettors will learn early how this team stacks up with the elite. Nine of their first 14 games will be on the road, including a five-game road trip that swings through the west coast. The average win total of their opponent is 43.6 and five of their opponents – the Celtics, Clippers, Warriors and Bucks – have win totals of 51.5 or higher.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has arguably the toughest opening schedule of any team in the NBA. They open the season in Phoenix where they are 5-point underdogs to the Suns before heading back home for a coinflip spot against Memphis. The Mavericks will then hit the road for a quick two-game trip to New Orleans and Brooklyn where they will likely be underdogs as well, the latter game dependent on what happens with Kevin Durant. After a trip to the Western Conference Finals a 1-3 start to the season seems probable for Dallas.
Denver Nuggets
Finally healthy the Nuggets have title aspirations, but Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are going to be thrown in the fire given how challenging the opening 20 games could be. Denver will be on the road for 13 of their first 19 games and just once will they play consecutive home games. Their opponents on the road include the Warriors, Trail Blazers, Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Mavericks and Clippers. Denver has winnable home games during this stretch, but a .500 start through the first 20 games or so is not unrealistic.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a team I am high coming into this season – as high as one can be on a team with a win total of 28.5 – and I will be able to test my position on them early. Detroit has a brutal start to its schedule, beginning on Oct. 25 with a home series against Atlanta and continuing for the next 25 games. Over that span the Pistons’ opponents have an average win total of 45.7 and they will play just 11 home games. That includes a west coast trip with stops in Los Angeles for a back-to-back, Denver Utah and Phoenix.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State’s first five games present quite a challenge as they will be on nationally televised games four times facing the Lakers, Nuggets, Suns and Heat. However, four of the first five will be at home and the schedule softens up immediately after that. Eight of the Warriors’ next 12 games will be on the road, but they face just four opponents with a win total over 39.5 and six of their opponents have a win total of 32.5 or lower meaning Golden State has another hot start starting in the face this season.
Houston Rockets
Homecourt in the NBA last season was not very important and Houston is hoping that continues to be the case with a road-heavy schedule to start their 2022-2023 campaign. The Rockets will be on the road for 14 of 21 games from Oct. 26 to Dec. 8 and only once during this stretch will they play consecutive home games. Over the course of these 21 contests, they face the Clippers three times, the Warriors twice and the Suns twice. That is 33.3% of those games against opponents with projected win totals of 51.5 which is challenging to say the least for a team projected to win fewer than 30 games.
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is projected by many to be the worst team in the league, so any stretch of games figures to be a challenge. However, may I direct your attention to a 22-game stretch from Oct. 24 to Dec. 7 that will have the Pacers on the road for 14 games. During this period they have a five-game road trip that includes the 76ers, Bulls and Nets twice, and they embark on a seven-game road trip to the west coast to close this stretch. To make matters worse they will likely be underdogs in every game but two over the course of these 22 contests – two home games against Orlando.
Los Angeles Clippers
With Kawhi Leonard returning from injury Los Angeles is primed to compete for a title, and their opening schedule will allow them to get off to a fantastic start. In their first 18 games the Clippers will face opponents with an average win total of 33.6 and 10 of those will take place at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles does have to deal with three back-to-back scenarios during this stretch, so it is likely Leonard missed a few games, but there is no doubt that the Clippers have a path to an incredible start in front of them.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ten of the first 15 games for Los Angeles will be at home, but their first 11 contests present quite a few challenges. During that 11-game stretch they face the Warriors, Clippers (twice), Nuggets (twice), Timberwolves and Pelicans. That is seven of the first 11 games against opponents with projected win totals of 47.5 or higher. A four-game homestand to close out the first 15 contests will see the Lakers faces three teams with win totals of 32.5 or lower but there is no doubt this opening stretch presents some challenges for Los Angeles.