Wednesday was a day mostly spent doing some editing duties for VSiN and taking care of some chores and errands in and around the Tuley’s Takes home office (it’s amazing how the little things add up when you’re following sports news and games all day and night long).
But it ended up being a profitable day, too, as we won our Best Bet on the Rockets +9 (closed +10) at the Raptors with a rare early-season NBA play. It was looking iffy with the Rockets trailing by 13 points at the end of three quarters, but they rallied enough to get in the back door. Let’s get to the rest of our daily recaps plus our Best Bet for Thursday, and then we’ll do our usual rerun of our weekly Wednesday column (which replaces the one we used to do in “Point Spread Weekly” in which we give our takes on the full NFL Week 10 card.Wednesday’s Recaps
NBA: Faves went 9-4 SU, but dogs led 7-6 ATS with upsets by the Magic (+8.5 vs. Mavericks), Jazz (+4.5 at Hawks), Kings (+4.5 vs. Cavaliers) and Suns (+2 at Timberwolves). The Rockets (+10 at Raptors), Spurs (+5.5 vs. Grizzlies) and Pacers (+5 vs. Nuggets) covered in SU losses. Road teams led 7-6 SU, but home teams led 7-6 ATS. Overs 8-5.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 108-61 SU with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs lead 89-73-7 ATS (54.9%). Home teams dipped to 101-70 SU but improved to 85-79-7 ATS (51.8%). Overs retook overall lead in totals wagering at 85-83-3 (50.6%).
CFB: Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS in Wednesday night MACtion as my alma mater Northern Illinois beat Western Michigan 24-21 in a game that closed pick-'em. Central Michigan (-2.5) and Kent State (-2.5) both covered in their wins. Road teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Unders led 2-1. Favorites lead 6-3 SU with 1 pick-'em in midweek MACtion games since they started in November, but underdogs still lead 6-3 ATS after a 6-1 ATS start. Road teams lead 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS. Over/Unders back to .500 at 5-5.NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 (but dogs still lead 14-7 the last 4 days, 31-17 the last 7 days) with upsets by the Canadiens (+140 vs. Canucks) and Panthers (+100 vs. Hurricanes). Home and road teams also split 2-2. Unders led 3-1. On the season, faves lead 113-92 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 110-97 with 4 neutral-site games while Overs’ lead dipped to 104-101-6.
Thursday’s Takes
Panthers +8.5/Lions +8.5: We give more details on our reasoning in the Wednesday column below, but we basically recommend betting this before the Thursday Night Football game and using a 2-team, 6-point teaser to move the Panthers and Lions both through the key numbers of 3 and 7 so we just need both teams to stay within a TD of the Falcons and Bears, respectively.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule. Week 9 was one of our best of the season as we went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets on the Jets +11.5 vs. the Bills, Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers and Titans +12.5 at the Chiefs with the lone loss on the Panthers +7.5 at the Bengals. We also swept our 2-team, 6-point teasers, led by our top plays on Jaguars +8.5/Seahawks +8 and Seahawks +8/Rams +8.5. In addition, my Uncle Brent (Musburger) invited me to appear on his “Countdown to Kickoff” NFL pregame show at 9:45 a.m. PT Sunday to ask about my “dog-or-pass philosophy” in light of the fact dogs have been dominating. It was perfect timing as dogs went 7-4-2 ATS in Week 9 and completing the first half of the 18-week schedule at 74-54-6 ATS (57.8%). Musburger asked me for my top play and I went with the Lions (who were up to +4 at that time) and they pulled the 15-9 outright upset. I also gave out the Jets and Titans on the show, plus the Seahawks-Rams teaser in the “afternoon session,” going 4-0 overall. It just continues to show that parity is alive and well in the NFL, though we’re certainly trying to guard against getting too cocky or over-confident and trying to still be selective in finding the right dogs to back. Without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 10 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game.Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
The surprising Falcons are 4-5 and tied for first place in the NFC South with the Buccaneers while the Panthers are just two games back at 2-7, but the perception of both teams is quite different as Carolina fired coach Matt Ruhle earlier in the season and traded away star RB Christian McCaffrey in a move that was viewed as giving up on this year and planning for the future. I could throw around a bunch of stats on both teams; however, the fact is they played just 11 days prior to this Thursday night’s game with the Falcons winning 37–34 in OT. That game was even more thrilling than the final score indicates as it looked like the Panthers were going to win on a late PJ Walker-to-D.J. Moore TD pass until Moore took off his helmet during his celebration in the end zone and the longer go-ahead PAT was missed. There’s no reason to believe this won’t come down to a one-score game again in Carolina. In fact, if Baker Mayfield (14-for-20, 155 yards, 2 TDs after su bbing for Walker last week vs. the Bengals) was starting, I would probably be taking the Panthers plus the points or on the money line, but we’ll settle for some 2-point, 6-point teasers to some games on Sunday. Lions +8.5 at the Bears is my favorite “advantage teaser” (aka “Wong teaser”) of the week that captures the key number of 3 and 7 as I gave out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night). Other possibilities are the Seahawks +8.5 vs. the Buccaneers in Germany, Steelers +8.5 vs. the Saints and Cardinals +9 at the Rams.
Best Bet: Panthers +9/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Panthers in all my rare ATS contests that include Thursday Night Football, but just 67/33 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) in Germany
As stated above, I like the Seahawks in teasers, either starting with the Panthers on Thursday night or kicking off our early-Sunday action as this game kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT with the aforementioned games later in the day. I’m also contemplating taking the spread with the Seahawks as we can certainly make the claim that the Buccaneers and Tom Brady are only favored here based on past reputation. The Seahawks are 6-3 and leading the NFC West and have been playing better than the Bucs all season, Of course, no matter how bad Brady is playing, he always seems to be around for a shot at the end — as we saw again last week as he pulled out a 20-17 win vs. the Rams out of his magic hat — so the safest play again appears to be the teaser.
Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests but Buccaneers 55/45 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Chiefs (6-2) have won their last two games since losing to the Bills and are now the second-choice at 5-1 in Super Bowl futures at DraftKings. Patrick Mahomes has also become the 2-1 favorite to win MVP as he leads a KC offense that is No. 2 to the Bills averaging 415.3 yards per game and a league-high 30.4 point per game. The Jaguars, who rallied to beat the reeling Raiders 27-20 after not taking a bye week following their London trip, are improved in many ways in coach Doug Pederson’s first season, but they’re still just 3-6 and 3-6 ATS with an offense that ranks No. 8 at a surprisingly high 367.4 yards per game behind Trevor Lawrence, but a middle-of-the-road defense that allows 343.4 yards per game. For me, this comes down to the fact that the Chiefs usually let teams stick around (they’re just 3-5 ATS, including non-covering wins against the Chargers, Raiders and Titans just this past Sunday night). We can't help but think this line is going to be bet to double digits by the public, so we’ll wait for the line to reach its highest as DD dogs are coming off a 3-0 ATS week and 8-4 ATS on the season).
Best Bet: Pass for now, but waiting for Jaguars +10 or better (pool play: Jaguars 67/33 in ATS contests though Chiefs still 75/25 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5)