Friday was a relatively slow sports betting day (travel day in World Series, 12 games in NBA but light schedules in NHL and CFB) in the Tuley’s Takes home office as most of the focus was on the Breeders’ Cup.
We finished up our handicapping and writing for Saturday’s big 9-race BC card (you can find that HERE while watching and wagering on Friday’s BC races. It was pretty much a break-even day as we blanked in four of the races, but we did nail the Juvenile as we had Forte on top at 5-1 (paid $12.04) and our 1-2-3-Longshot that we give out in every race ended up hitting the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta. We also won our sports Best Bet as Boston College (+10.5) lost 38-31 vs. Duke but covered the spread. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s action and then look for more Best Bets on Saturday, though I will say I’m passing on the World Series game (I already have a +170 series bet on the Phillies, so I’ll just let that ride as my wager for Saturday’s game as they’re on the verge of elimination, trailing 3-2). As has become our custom around here, we’ll then rerun our “takes” column from Wednesday in which we go over the entire NFL Week 9 card as we try to follow up on the Thursday Night Football win on the Texans.Friday’s Recaps
NBA: Faves went 7-5 SU on Friday, but dogs led 8-4 ATS. The upsets were by the Blazers (+12 at Suns), Jazz (+3.5 at Lakers), Nets (+3 at Wizards), Pacers (+3 vs. Heat) and Knicks (+1.5 at 76ers). The Warriors (+10.5 at Pelicans), Bulls (+7 at Celtics) and Raptors (+4.5 at Mavericks) covered in losses. Road teams went 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS. Unders 8-4.
More NBA: On the regular season, faves lead 82-47 SU with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 66-56-7 ATS (54.1%). Home teams lead 79-52 SU but plummet to 63-61-7 ATS (50.8%). Overs dropped to 68-60-3 (53.1%).
NHL: Faves (both at home) went 2-0 Friday as Avalanche (-255) beat Blue Jackets 6-3 (went Over 6.5) and Hurricanes (-200) beat Sabres 5-3 (went Over 6.5). On the season, faves lead 100-69 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 95-78 with 2 neutral-site games. Overs lead 89-83-3.
CFB: Washington beat No. 25 Oregon State 24-21 Friday night. It wasn’t an upset as Washington was a 4.5-point home favorite, but the Huskies didn’t cover. Earlier, Duke beat Boston College 38-31, but also didn’t cover as 11.5-point road fave. UConn (15.5-point home fave) did cover in 27-10 win vs. UMass.
MLB (ICYMI): Underdogs lead 3-2 in the World Series. Road teams lead 3-2. Unders lead 3-1-1. Overall in the playoffs, dogs lead 20-18 with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 22-17 overall. Unders lead 20-17-2 in totals wagering.
NFL (ICYMI): Faves lead 73-48-1 SU on the season with 2 game closing pick-’em, but dogs improved to 68-50-4 ATS (57.6%). Home teams dipped to 66-54-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games, but road teams improved to 62-55-4 ATS (53%). Unders dipped to 70-52-2 (57.3%) and primetime Unders dip to 15-10-1 (60%).Saturday’s Takes
We’re actually 2-0 ATS so far this week in CFB with Ball State on Tuesday and Boston College on Friday. Those were both dogs that covered big spreads in SU losses while these Saturday picks are made as we love their chances to win outright:
Syracuse +4 at Pittsburgh Baylor +3.5 at Oklahoma Georgia State +2 at Southern Miss Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. Regular readers should know the routine by now while we trust newbies will get up to speed with our “dog-or-pass” philosophy. We’re basically looking for the live dogs on each week’s card, but we know everyone isn’t as dogmatic as we are. We also have a lot of readers that play more chalk than we do, but they still check our “takes” each week because they feel that if I’m not able to make a case for an underdog, they see it as tacit approval to lay the points. To each his own. We’re just trying to help in any way we can! Last weekend, we had a rollercoaster ride as we won our Best Bet on the Packers + 11.5 (early in the week for our regular readers) and + 11 in their 27-17 loss at the Bills on Sunday Night Football, but went 2-3 ATS overall with our top plays. But the good news is we still had a winning weekend as we hit nearly all of our teaser plays, including Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 40 on Thursday Night Football (given out in last Wednesday’s original “takes” column). We then flipped to Ravens + 8/Over 40 on game day when there was a change of favorite and cashed both in the Ravens’ 27-22 victory. So it pays to check back for our daily updates. Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 9 card. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still give my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Philadelphia Eagles (-14) at Houston TexansI’ll just come right out and say that I believe parity is alive and well in today’s NFL and I'll be on all three double-digit underdogs this weekend, including the Jets + 13 vs. the Bills and Titans + 12.5 at the Chiefs. We know the Eagles have the league’s best record at 7-0 SU as the last undefeated team and Lions’ 1-6 record is the only one worse than the Texans’ 1-5-1. However, we still don’t think any NFL team should be two-TD faves vs. any other on any given Sunday (or Thursday night), plus double-digit dogs – while not the automatic play they once were – are 5-4 ATS far this season with the Panthers’ 21-3 Week 7 home win vs. the Buccaneers being the lone outright upset. In fact, double-digit home dogs (like the Texans here) are 1-0 SU and ATS. For those curious, 9.5-point dogs (just on the cusp of double-digits) are 2-2 ATS with the Steelers’ 20-18 Week 6 home win vs. the Bucs being the next-biggest upset. The Texans are a respectable 3-3-1 ATS and also covered in their lone game as a double-digit dog as they only lost 16-9 at the Broncos back in Week 2 as 10-point dogs. The Texans have been 7-point pups three times and are 2-1 ATS in those games as they tied the Colts 20-20 in the season-opener and beat the Jaguars outright, 13-6, in Week 5, so they’re used to sticking around in games with big spreads.
Best Bet: Texans + 14 (pool play: Texans in all my rare ATS contests using TNF, but Eagles in all my SU pools).
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5)