Our sophisticated predictive analytics model is able to identify the players most likely to score the first basket in tonight's NBA games, as well as some value bets for Friday November 4, 2022. Based upon the globally respected Monte Carlo Simulator method, we have have analyzed every NBA game today by simulating each of them over 10,000 times to find NBA first basket value plays. We are able to identify these opportunities by matching our results against the sportsbooks' odds to learn where we have a betting edge,  ;and where we believe the odds makers have got it wrong in their assessment of an NBA matchup.
Using Friday's NBA First Basket prop markets across multiple platforms, we compare the results of our simulations to the sportsbooks' odds, allowing us to identify the NBA players that present the most value to score the first basket of the game and also those with the highest probability of doing so.
Friday NBA First Basket Predictions
In recent times, NBA first basket bets have become one of the more popular prop bets for sports bettors to wager on. All of the major sportsbooks offer NBA odds on first basket scorer, so by using our predictive analytics model to identify where the edges lie on Friday, November 4, you're giving yourself an advantage over the rest of the field.
Our super computer identifies both value bets and the players with the highest probabilities. While all the usual suspects will often feature in our NBA first basket predictions, it is unlikely you will ever see the likes of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jason Tatum or Giannis listed as 'value bets' because the odds the sportsbooks put up for those guys are always extremely efficient – and that's where we come in.
| PLAYER | FIRST BASKET |
| Luka Doncic (DAL) | 18.42% chance |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 15.28% chance |
| Jaylen Brown (BOS) | 14.56% chance |
| Pascal Siakam (TOR) | 13.82% chance |
| DeMar DeRozan (CHI) | 12.25% chance |
|
Spencer Dinwiddie (DAL) |
11.10% chance |
| Gary Trent (TOR) | 10.88% chance |
| Zach LaVine (CHI) |
10.77% chance |
| Scottie Barnes (TOR) | 10.55% chance |
|
JaVale McGee (DAL) |
10.25% chance |
| Nikola Vucevic (CHI) | 9.84% chance |
| Patrick Williams (CHI) | 8.61% chance |
| Ayo Dosunmu (CHI) |
8.53% chance |
| OG Anunoby (TOR) | 8.13% chance |
| Marcus Smart (BOS) | 7.03% chance |
| Al Horford (BOS) | 7.01% chance |
| Fred VanVleet (TOR) | 6.62% chance |
| Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL) | 6.38% chance |
| Derrick White (BOS) | 6.12% chance |
| Reggie Bullock (DAL) | 3.85% chance |